BA/BF Price Drop?

[Plugg3r]

Hi Guys,
I heard in June that the BA and BF's should drop in value as bit.
Just wondering A: Is this correct?

And B: How much?

I'm looking for a 2006 or newer BA XR6T so yeh just wondering how much be looking at in June

[brodfloyd]

yes and no.

With the arrival of the orion falcon. Public launch late feb, on sale Second quarter 2008 there will inevitably be a price drop in the BA/F models of falcons. AU and older should not notice much of a change as the majority of their market value has already been lost over the years. That is of course excluding classic and rare/collectable models.

Ford will be discounting new "runout" BF's quite drastically to move stock, with large incentives from ford AU corporate. This has already begun with quite handy discounts already being offered by many dealers. However the discounts will become even greater after a, the official launch of orion, and b, the date orion is on sale to the public. There will be a special SR which has already been annouced, basically this means ford chuck in all the fruit (options) and sell them cheap, to move the last of the old stock.

It usually takes up to 6 months for the price drop to fully hit the second hand market. Dealers drop the price fairly because they focus on volume and know that if its not selling today because its price is too high, it certainly wont sell tomorrow. They also have probably taken the new model into account already and have factored the loss into their trade ins anyway.

However, private sellers who 12 months ago bought a bf xr6t for $44k* arent going to want to sell their <50,000km cars for less than $25k* without a fight, and this market takes longer to reduce its prices. but when a new runout bf is being run out for 30-35k and people get more and more desperate to sell, the used private market eventually has to fall in line, or do what many people will do and run their good old bf into the ground and update in 10 years when its totally shagged (my family with our good old EF xr6).

The price drops will effect the BF first, and most severly, however a diluted knock on effect to BA models will filter down. However, remember that BA's are now up to 6 years old and the majority of their depreciation has already occured. Some models will hold their value greater than others, expect 5spd manuals and 4 speed autos to be cheaper than the later series 2 6spd man and BF 6spd auto.

I hope that answers your questions, and if i am mistaken i would appreciate some expansive and thorough rebuttals from some of our more knowledgable contributors.

thanks, bf


Odds on in oct/nov this year we will have some very peeved members starting threads on the shabby trade in they get offered on near new bf's.

[Plugg3r]

Well I have to buy from a Dealer anyways so thats good for me

Buying through Salary Sacrifice.
< 40,000km and under 2yr old.

ATM They're about $34k and $37k for ute.

What ya reckon they'll be in June?

[JG66ME]

Originally Posted by brodfloyd

yes and no.

With the arrival of the orion falcon. Public launch late feb, on sale Second quarter 2008 there will inevitably be a price drop in the BA/F models of falcons. AU and older should not notice much of a change as the majority of their market value has already been lost over the years. That is of course excluding classic and rare/collectable models.

Ford will be discounting new "runout" BF's quite drastically to move stock, with large incentives from ford AU corporate. This has already begun with quite handy discounts already being offered by many dealers. However the discounts will become even greater after a, the official launch of orion, and b, the date orion is on sale to the public. There will be a special SR which has already been annouced, basically this means ford chuck in all the fruit (options) and sell them cheap, to move the last of the old stock.

It usually takes up to 6 months for the price drop to fully hit the second hand market. Dealers drop the price fairly because they focus on volume and know that if its not selling today because its price is too high, it certainly wont sell tomorrow. They also have probably taken the new model into account already and have factored the loss into their trade ins anyway.

However, private sellers who 12 months ago bought a bf xr6t for $44k* arent going to want to sell their <50,000km cars for less than $25k* without a fight, and this market takes longer to reduce its prices. but when a new runout bf is being run out for 30-35k and people get more and more desperate to sell, the used private market eventually has to fall in line, or do what many people will do and run their good old bf into the ground and update in 10 years when its totally shagged (my family with our good old EF xr6).

The price drops will effect the BF first, and most severly, however a diluted knock on effect to BA models will filter down. However, remember that BA's are now up to 6 years old and the majority of their depreciation has already occured. Some models will hold their value greater than others, expect 5spd manuals and 4 speed autos to be cheaper than the later series 2 6spd man and BF 6spd auto.

I hope that answers your questions, and if i am mistaken i would appreciate some expansive and thorough rebuttals from some of our more knowledgable contributors.

thanks, bf


Odds on in oct/nov this year we will have some very peeved members starting threads on the shabby trade in they get offered on near new bf's.

No rebuttals here, I think you have it about right.

Steve

[brodfloyd]

Originally Posted by Plugg3r

Well I have to buy from a Dealer anyways so thats good for me

Buying through Salary Sacrifice.
< 40,000km and under 2yr old.

ATM They're about $34k and $37k for ute.

What ya reckon they'll be in June?

Probably a bit of a price drop on BF's in june as orion will have just gone on sale, but for maximum effect towards the end of the year would be an even better time to buy a BF. But remember, dealers are more likely to chuck stuff into the deal rather than cut the price eg, extended warrantee, mats, stripes, servicing, on roads etc.

Also remember, alot of other people have the same idea as you, especially for models with an enthusiast following (xr6t, xr8, fpv's) so remember supply and demand determines the price of everything. Ie, the best deals will be had on the less desirable models in the range.

If you need a car, you need a car, and there is no time like the present. All analogies/metaphors aside, there are pro's and cons to buying any car at any time. If you buy a fairly new trade in, you never know what may have happened before you owned it and it has lots of depreciation to go but is cheaper than buying one new. if you buy one too old, things start to break.

If you buy a new car and its just been released, its expensive and could be unreliable, however if you buy one just before a new model is released, its cheaper but also going to be superceeded soon and take a price battering.

Remember, as my grandfather has always told me, "Cars are a liability, not an asset."

[Plugg3r]

Yep as people have been telling me, I just being young and probably dumb am getting a good pay and only thing I pay for is the food in the house and the fuel for the car besides that nothing.

And being in love with the XR series BA's the XR6 is the go.
Now seeing as im also a rev head prior I was going to buy a XR6 in April but seeing the price drop a XR6T in June for the same price as a XR6 in April seems do-able.

And plus you know the Value of the car would hold more and blah blah blah and plus you know being able to beat my mates VT SS and such blah blah

But no, Its a do-able thing and seeing as its just me and the old man in the house I dont see moving out any time soon

But once again anyone have a good guestimation of the price in June?

[brodfloyd]

Originally Posted by Plugg3r

Yep as people have been telling me, I just being young and probably dumb am getting a good pay and only thing I pay for is the food in the house and the fuel for the car besides that nothing.

And being in love with the XR series BA's the XR6 is the go.
Now seeing as im also a rev head prior I was going to buy a XR6 in April but seeing the price drop a XR6T in June for the same price as a XR6 in April seems do-able.

And plus you know the Value of the car would hold more and blah blah blah and plus you know being able to beat my mates VT SS and such blah blah

But no, Its a do-able thing and seeing as its just me and the old man in the house I dont see moving out any time soon

But once again anyone have a good guestimation of the price in June?

who knows mate? orion could be the "homermobile" and BF values could skyrocket!!! thats unlikely, but until orion launches any change is purely guessing. However on previous experience, $2-3k in the short to medium term.

[Plugg3r]

Sounds good.
Thanks for all the information, ill judge in April if I can handle the extra 2 months wait

[GT0132]

At the end of the day it's all relative and the car market like any market is driven by supply and demand..

If Ford drop the price of a BF GT by $5 grand on release of the Orion, and the flow on effect is such that my car also drops $5 grand, so what !.the changeover price is still relatively the same.

Theres a lot of folks out there who will never buy the first of a new model (me included) . If a sizeable number of those people decide to update their existing car between June 2008 thru to 2009 they will search out good quality low km BF's which will increase demand for them and price.

If the Orion turns out to be a complete dud, similar to the AU, expect to see a lot of Ford owners moving to Holden in droves. The 1988/89 EA 's were a classic example of a new release model being a dud

Remember though, Ford can't discount BF's too much as the price gap between them and the Orion would be so wide that no one would wanna buy one. The Orion will not be discounted until the MK2 version comes out whenever that will be., so if you've been offered an entry level 2008 Orion for $38k on the road and a 2008 BF XT for $28k on the road (a car that's been proven compared to an unknown) what would you rather have?

Remember us Forum members are passionate about cars and may be tempted to go the new car. However we're in the minority....Fleet buyers aside, most car consumers out there are average families who just want transport the cheapest way possible and don't know the difference between a CAI and an ICC and don't wanna know.

[Plugg3r]

Yeh well a lot of people dont buy new cars out hence for example the new Toyota 200series Landcruisers.

But yeh reason im into BA's, Holden's having got anything next to them

[Aulpgute]

Back in Oct 2007 Orix Fleet in Sydney dumped around 40 odd BA Falcon Mk2 sedans thru their auction and all went between $8500 and $9500. Things like this only accelerate depreciation even further.

[TeamQldRacing]

Don't be hoodwinked by fleet sales, these days a 04/05 Commode or Falcon from our company would have 350000 km on it and the company sells them to staff for as low as $4500. not revelant to my personal BA Classic with 45000km on it.
cheers

[Plugg3r]

Yeh i noticed Pickles Auctions selling some BF MKII XR6T 2006 w/ 51,000kms for $26,500. Which isnt too bad I dont think

Be nice if they lower even more hehe

[Tuddy200]

If you currently have a car then waiting 2-5 months isn't going to tear you apart that much I don't think, and if you have excess cash to play with then think ahead at some mods you want to do it and maybe have them ready waiting to go as soon as you get the car.

OR Sponser a child from $1 a day.... or me!

[Plugg3r]

Yeh thats what im doing ;)
Will be a well worth wait for a XR6T compared to a XG Stock Ute