Covid 19 -

[zipping]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

Some countries and US states have released figures showing how much higher their death rate (from all causes) is compared to the average of the last few years. Most show a rate higher than that which would be produced by just adding the covid figures to the normal death rate.

If these figures stand up to scrutiny then the "it's just the flu" people are going to look a bit stupid. So are the ones who claim that the deaths from covid are being exaggerated. One exception is Sweden where the death rate is lower than normal. Too early to draw any firm conclusions yet; for many countries this is far from over.

Can you post a link?

Just been looking at Sweden and theirs is about average, 29220, 27962, 28822, 29864, 26604 and this year to date 28461

got that off twitter might not be accurate, note jan 1 to end April 15 numbers

[Franco Cozzo]

Whats everyone's thoughts on how long this will run before we're back to society as normal pre COVID-19?

I'm calling June 2021 before we're back to no restrictions and society as normal.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Whats everyone's thoughts on how long this will run before we're back to society as normal pre COVID-19?

I'm calling June 2021 before we're back to no restrictions and society as normal.

I'm more than happy for social distancing practice to stay. It's nice having 1.5m of personal space at the shops etc

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Whats everyone's thoughts on how long this will run before we're back to society as normal pre COVID-19?

Mate. it'll never go back to being NORMALThe World as We Know It has changed Forever.

As My eldest Daughter said to Me the other day "Daddy We're Living History at the Moment" I think a Lot of Work & Business Practices as well as Shopping & Dining out Habits have forever changed.

Just My 2 cents worth.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by hayseed

Mate. it'll never go back to being NORMALThe World as We Know It has changed Forever.

As My eldest Daughter said to Me the other day "Daddy We're Living History at the Moment" I think a Lot of Work & Business Practices as well as Shopping & Dining out Habits have forever changed.

Just My 2 cents worth.

If that's the case I feel like the jaded old man I portray who grew up in the 1960s and thinks 1979 was the best year ever, take me back to 2019

I do welcome the initiatives from businesses who have shifted to online with gusto, I just wish people would stop using Australia Post for freight, took 3 weeks for Australia Post to get something from Sydney to Melbourne via road

[zipping]

According to this analysis just over 50% of US deaths are nursing home victims.

New York +Jersey lost up to 10% of their nursing home populations

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=1664960286

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

I just wish people would stop using Australia Post for freight, took 3 weeks for Australia Post to get something from Sydney to Melbourne via road

I saw an e-mail from Aus post the other day saying that they are now processing around 2 million parcels a day, Australia wide. And most of the air freight avenues they had available to them (domestic flights between capital cities) nearly dried up overnight, forcing them to have to contract in dedicated air freight flights.

I think Aus Post have been just as inundated within an unexpected inlfux of customerage as supermarkets were for toilet paper. It takes time to ramp up your processes to be able to compensate.

And then there's all of the social distancing and goods handling practices they'd need to put in place to ensure the health and safety of their workforce during the pandemic.

I think we should be showing them a little bit of empathy. And probably even a bit of sympathy.

[roKWiz]

re. Austpost.
Maybe parcels but their mail service is crap ever since that Iranian guy left as CEO and took 5 million dollar salary with a huge payout to boot.

We have been paying for him ever since. Some places don't have a daily mail service anymore.

I send USB's all over Aus and NZ via the regular post. After the CEO left it went from 55 cent post standard to $1 to now $1.10 and of course a USB is ever so slightly thicker that their slot, so they make me put 2 stamps on each envelope.

15 working days to post an envelope to WA from country Victoria. 5 working days for the same from country Vic to Melb or Sydney and this was before Covid.

[marty351]

Originally Posted by hayseed

Mate. it'll never go back to being NORMALThe World as We Know It has changed Forever.

As My eldest Daughter said to Me the other day "Daddy We're Living History at the Moment" I think a Lot of Work & Business Practices as well as Shopping & Dining out Habits have forever changed.

Just My 2 cents worth.

The eleventh of September 2001 changed the world, mostly for the worse.
Now we have paramilitary police forces that act on a whim if a gun is mentioned, and around the clock police surveillance of anything to boot......... ....

[guzzis3]

Originally Posted by hayseed

Mate. it'll never go back to being NORMALThe World as We Know It has changed Forever.

As My eldest Daughter said to Me the other day "Daddy We're Living History at the Moment" I think a Lot of Work & Business Practices as well as Shopping & Dining out Habits have forever changed.

Just My 2 cents worth.

People forget so fast your head will spin. When was the last mention of the bush fires you saw ?

The big question is the second wave. If that pans out as it did in 1918 it is going to be horrific and government action will go on for years. If we largely avoid a second wave and have relatively few deaths and hospitalizations people will forget all about it by the end of the year.

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Whats everyone's thoughts on how long this will run before we're back to society as normal pre COVID-19?

I'm calling June 2021 before we're back to no restrictions and society as normal.

Depends on what you call normal. Unemployment predicted to hit 9% even after the lockdown is lifted. How long it stays that high is up to the govt; if they throw enough money at the problem it will go away. Big tax cuts and lots of govt spending will always produce a boom. Produces lots of govt debt too but just pretend that doesn't matter. Worked for DJT.

Airlines say 2 years at least before they are back to pre-covid levels. C ruise lines may be the same. Some countries may not let you get a visa unless you have a vaccination certificate. It used to be like that in a lot of places years ago. So a return to normal there depends on when we get an effective vaccine and get a few billion people vaccinated. Same for big crowds at stadiums, just produce your vaccination certificate to get in.

I don't believe Aussies will stop buying Chinese crap. Locally made goods can't compete on price so that will be back to normal as soon as we go back to shopping.

[zipping]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

Depends on what you call normal. Unemployment predicted to hit 9% even after the lockdown is lifted. How long it stays that high is up to the govt; if they throw enough money at the problem it will go away. Big tax cuts and lots of govt spending will always produce a boom. Produces lots of govt debt too but just pretend that doesn't matter. Worked for DJT.

You missed the secret sauce

Cuts to excessive regulations. Was watching a conspiracy theory on how germany hid all this gold and used it to save their economy after ww2.

No they didn't, simply they opened their market right up to competition, let the market go nuts. Oddly, those crazy Germans called it the social free market.

This led to Mercedes entering F1 by 1954 at the French GP where they ran 1-2 first race back.

Fangio though.

If the gov predicts 9% well automatically that's optimistic, be 12% or higher

[CoupeKing]

Originally Posted by zipping

You missed the secret sauce

Cuts to excessive regulations. Was watching a conspiracy theory on how germany hid all this gold and used it to save their economy after ww2.

No they didn't, simply they opened their market right up to competition, let the market go nuts. Oddly, those crazy Germans called it the social free market.

This led to Mercedes entering F1 by 1954 at the French GP where they ran 1-2 first race back.

Fangio though.

If the gov predicts 9% well automatically that's optimistic, be 12% or higher

Check their post count.

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by zipping

You missed the secret sauce

Cuts to excessive regulations. Was watching a conspiracy theory on how germany hid all this gold and used it to save their economy after ww2.

No they didn't, simply they opened their market right up to competition, let the market go nuts. Oddly, those crazy Germans called it the social free market.

This led to Mercedes entering F1 by 1954 at the French GP where they ran 1-2 first race back.

The Allies looted Germany for everything they could and introduced strict price controls and rationing. The plan was for it to become an agricultural economy. Then in`1947 the cold war happened and the US poured billions into the German economy because they realised they needed a strong ally against Russia. The Marshall plan rebuilt Germany with US dollars. Their Prime Minister realised with all these US dollars they could afford tax cuts and so their economic miracle was achieved by the same old traditional method of tax cuts and govt spending But it did help that the German people were prepared to work their @$$ off.

I know I sound like another Trump hater (I am) but people think he's a miracle worker with the economy. I'm just trying to point out increasing govt spending and running up debt is not rocket science. Both Rudd and Obama did the same thing when the GFC hit. The secret is to know that you have to stop spending and start paying back eventually, something Turnbull and Trump (and my wife) couldn't work out.

Just my opinion, worth every cent you paid for it.

[MITCHAY]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Whats everyone's thoughts on how long this will run before we're back to society as normal pre COVID-19?

I'm calling June 2021 before we're back to no restrictions and society as normal.

Best case will be July when we're fully open for business. International borders kept locked down 6-12 months I reckon.

Though I had to laugh they have an exemption built in for overseas students, basically Chinese students to keep the unis flowing with $$$. House always gets a cut

I'm actually surprised that we are doubting US intel which is quite a big deal to rebuke them publicly. Seems it was substantially gathered from public sources.

That sort of scrutiny would have been great before we got involved in the invasion of Iraq.

But seems we have learned that lesson to take it at face value

[cheap]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Whats everyone's thoughts on how long this will run before we're back to society as normal pre COVID-19?

I'm calling June 2021 before we're back to no restrictions and society as normal.

My call:

I think unemployment will go even higher. This crisis has given many businesses the option to re-evaluate who is essential and who isn't. I expect more redundancies hitting an already bad job market. Wages will go down too.

From a company financial aspect, this crisis has provided businesses the opportunity to bring to the surface losses that they have had buried deep within their balance sheets. If you're going to make a loss then make it a big loss and blame China/C19.

Also, there is the risk of a second outbreak.

It will never go back to "normal", but will gradually improve in 12-24 months.

In the meantime ScoMo better get more money printing presses.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by cheap

My call:

I think unemployment will go even higher. This crisis has given many businesses the option to re-evaluate who is essential and who isn't. I expect more redundancies hitting an already bad job market. Wages will go down too.

From a company financial aspect, this crisis has provided businesses the opportunity to bring to the surface losses that they have had buried deep within their balance sheets. If you're going to make a loss then make it a big loss and blame China/C19.

Also, there is the risk of a second outbreak.

It will never go back to "normal", but will gradually improve in 12-24 months.

In the meantime ScoMo better get more money printing presses.

With the wages going down, if they offered me to keep my job but take a $10K pay cut, I'd consider asking them to give me a letter on company letterhead that they're standing me down because of COVID-19, because there's not much in it between what I get now for actually working and what govco COVID-19 fortnightly payments are.

Sit at home doing **** all for the same cash as doing what I do? That's not a hard decision to make.

The same thing happened with a friend of mine in WA, got stood down and then reoffered a few shifts at work but he was only going to be getting $45 more for going to work.

I'd do that and while sitting at home look at starting another business again I reckon but I'd do it differently this time.

[zipping]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

With the wages going down, if they offered me to keep my job but take a $10K pay cut, I'd consider asking them to give me a letter on company letterhead that they're standing me down because of COVID-19, because there's not much in it between what I get now for actually working and what govco COVID-19 fortnightly payments are.

I have had a handful of employee's refuse Job keeper

[prydey]

Originally Posted by zipping

I have had a handful of employee's refuse Job keeper

how does that work? jobkeeper is paid to employers and basically reimburses them for wages paid. If the employee refuses jobkeeper, then surely they are at risk of being stood down if the employer can't pay their wages.

[JasonACT]

Yeah, it's a guess as good as any. China (as much as I love their cheap tech, and as much as I loathe most else) is taking steps to rectify the problem with a vaccine, save face?, who cares. Get it done already.

[XR Martin]

Still think it will be a long time before the MCG is full.

[CoupeKing]

Originally Posted by XR Martin

Still think it will be a long time before the MCG is full.

Hang tight.

[marty351]

Originally Posted by XR Martin

Still think it will be a long time before the MCG is full.

Cha-ching$

(Pun intended)

[Charliewool]

We are getting a little bit of normality back.. La Mona Grita (my “local”) opened yesterday after 8-9 weeks... Although with 1/2 capacity, strict disinfecting rules, and social distancing.
Hopefully beaches open soon for our doggies sakes!
Seems we’re doing ok overall, going by below...

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/...irus-covid-19/

[MITCHAY]

Jebus 30m+ have claimed unemployment. That's nearer 10% of the total population of the US

Unemployment figures are made up of the labour force so they will be way higher.

One of two things will happen. Trump is counting on a huge surge in the economy to overcome the death rate or it will result in many more deaths. Bigly as he says. Who knows what will happen.

[MITCHAY]

We have a huge trade surplus with China. And then we have a deficit with the US. By Trumps own rules the US should pick up more Aussie goods to balance it out for a fair deal, right?

Happy to let us risk our own necks not to mention all the wars we have got involved in for a long time buying up a lot of American metal that is then used to back them up. Both ends of the deal.

It's not lost on me.

[PooDog]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

We have a huge trade surplus with China. And then we have a deficit with the US. By Trumps own rules the US should pick up more Aussie goods to balance it out for a fair deal, right?

Happy to let us risk our own necks not to mention all the wars we have got involved in for a long time buying up a lot of American metal that is then used to back them up. Both ends of the deal.

It's not lost on me.

Trouble is the US is the biggest meanest dog in the neighbourhood and the big dog gets what he wants and so on down the pecking order till it gets down to the little dog thats us (NZ) and you get the scraps and a lot of beatings....the law of the jungle rings true over everything ....all this PC bullsh$t masks it (imo thats why young kids have no respect) they think its their right, all these free trade agreements are just the same

[falcon_bandit]

Our local bowling alley informed us poor league bowlers 9 weeks till they open. Can't wait!!!

[russellw]

I was posting a summary of the current State responses until I hit the wrong button.

I'll do it in Word this time and then post it!

[ford71V8]

Originally Posted by russellw

I was posting a summary of the current State responses until I hit the wrong button.

I'll do it in Word this time and then post it!

Dontcha hate that!

Your efforts here over the last bunch of weeks is well appreciated