Covid 19 -

[PooDog]

Originally Posted by russellw

12+ is the approved range but as I posted the other day, the official counts are all based on the 16+ age group.

So (as of yesterday), the National official figure (16+) is 45.4% double dosed but that falls to 42.8% of 12+ and only 36.4% of the total population.

I guess that gives them the flexibility to use what ever figures suits the outcome they're pursuing?

[russellw]

Originally Posted by PooDog

I guess that gives them the flexibility to use what ever figures suits the outcome they're pursuing?

I think the term you are looking for is it allows them to lie basically.
We've followed the UK example of only counting people 16+ and we can see just how well that model has worked for them.

The jury is still out on exactly what the total population or even 12+ population percentage is that would be sufficient to slow down the pandemic but (for example) Measles required about 94% vax rates and Polio needed 80% to achieve herd immunity while Influenza only needs 40%.

The Grattan Institute model estimated 80% double dosed as the required level but it made some important assumptions that:

(1) aren't correct, like children over the age of two are able to be vaccinated; or
(2) are questionable, like the assumption that children under 16 are about one-fifth less likely to get COVID.

Best case scenario:
- let's say that the 2nd assumption is correct and
- let's say that the unvaccinated 2-12 year age group, themselves ~12% of the population, won't really impact the outcomes in terms of spreading the virus and
- we fully vaccinate 70% of the 12+ population which is equal to 73% of 16+ or 59.2% of total population and
- the effective REFF value is only 3 (it is currently about 6) once that vax target is reached then:

... we might just get away with hospitalisation, ICU and mortality rates that aren't too bad but if any one of those assumptions prove wrong then it is not a good look.

[GO FURTHER]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

hehe unbelievable how some grown ups are having a whinge about not being able to have their tea parties indoors during a pandemic. Unfortunately one of me best mate happens to be one of them. Reminds me every how essential he is and how he can travel wherever he wants. I said, privileged much? You are lucky Dan hasn't done a Berejiklian on you and shut you down.

So the CFMEU lost their tea rooms, what a pack of sooks, like no one else has suffered like them... Big boys do cry.

Many like me, have been unable to work in other industries.
We lost our income, for 154 days last year, and 76 days so far this year, a total of 230 days (32 weeks) in Victoria during this Pandemic.

While I do the right thing, quietly having a cuppa at home alone in lockdown everyday with no pay, these construction workers are still able to take home their fat pay cheques!

When the going gets tough... The tough get going!
That's what real men like my grandfather did in the war... Huddled together in the trenches fighting for a real cause.

Instead, these construction workers prefer to flex their muscles and show bravado in unity, all because they can't huddle up close together in a cosy tea room.... What a disgrace!

[Hippy]

Originally Posted by slowsnake

Having been a Union member in the bad old days of the " dangerous 70's " I found that any Union was only as good as its members!
Workers all want good conditions ( safety ) and good pay rates for site work, especially isolated mine sites, but getting them to vote to strike is a different matter, what happened recently in Melbourne CBD was "****weak" and an embarrassment, you have to gain something with these antics, and you want to gain the support of the public!...they failed


Cheers Billy

FEDFA ,, which meant , federated engine drivers etc .

50 years . earthmoving . Aus , PNG . Mallaca ..

SOME COULD NOT GRADE SHEEP S'' OFF A MARBLE FLOOR

Bloody fergotten more than the wannabes Know Taday

Kinda went against me grain when they said in 'bout '92 when multi s /Killing

came in .. i called it ..


your no an Operater , you are Mine Worker..

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by PooDog

Or are the pollies over there trying to give the percentage rates a head start

Perish the Thought..........

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT September 17th 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

1,787 new cases for Australia and 13 deaths so the CMR is 1.388%.

15 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.673%.

The UK had 32,292 cases yesterday and 178 deaths for a CMR of 1.831%.

158,106 new cases in the USA yesterday and 2,161 deaths sees CMR at 1.615%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 228M, the last 1M in 2 days;

Syria (184); and
New Caledonia (383);

... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Venezuela moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while no countries drop below.

[russellw]

NSW/VIC

NSW records 1,333 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9943 (from 1.0118) while the actual line is now just above the predictive trend line and based on the 4th order polynomial, that trend line now has a downward curve.



VIC records 535 cases in the current period (another record for this outbreak) and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.1136 (from 1.0988) while the actual line remains slightly below the predictive trend line.

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by russellw

I'm sure that Dan is well enough aware of where his support base is but the data doesn't leave much choice.

The reality is that construction has proven to be a problem with new case outbreaks and the fact that the average geographical spread of those case was 10x the distance of other cases (40km v 4km) so the risk of travelling back to their regional areas is just too great to take.

In a typically mature response, I see the CFMEU members decided to disrupt what little traffic was in the Melbourne CBD by having their smoko breaks out on the road but despite the warnings that have been given over the last weeks I saw little evidence of masks or social distancing.

Frankly, as one of the few 'privileged' groups still allowed to go to work, if they want to behave like recalcitrant school kids then I'd simply ban construction workers from being on site or reduce it back to 10% of the workforce and see how they like that.

https://www.theshovel.com.au/2021/09...room-closures/

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by russellw

I'm sure that Dan is well enough aware of where his support base is but the data doesn't leave much choice.

The reality is that construction has proven to be a problem with new case outbreaks and the fact that the average geographical spread of those case was 10x the distance of other cases (40km v 4km) so the risk of travelling back to their regional areas is just too great to take.

In a typically mature response, I see the CFMEU members decided to disrupt what little traffic was in the Melbourne CBD by having their smoko breaks out on the road but despite the warnings that have been given over the last weeks I saw little evidence of masks or social distancing.

Frankly, as one of the few 'privileged' groups still allowed to go to work, if they want to behave like recalcitrant school kids then I'd simply ban construction workers from being on site or reduce it back to 10% of the workforce and see how they like that.

Originally Posted by GO FURTHER

So the CFMEU lost their tea rooms, what a pack of sooks, like no one else has suffered like them... Big boys do cry.

Many like me, have been unable to work in other industries.
We lost our income, for 154 days last year, and 76 days so far this year, a total of 230 days (32 weeks) in Victoria during this Pandemic.

While I do the right thing, quietly having a cuppa at home alone in lockdown everyday with no pay, these construction workers are still able to take home their fat pay cheques!

When the going gets tough... The tough get going!
That's what real men like my grandfather did in the war... Huddled together in the trenches fighting for a real cause.

Instead, these construction workers prefer to flex their muscles and show bravado in unity, all because they can't huddle up close together in a cosy tea room.... What a disgrace!

#notallconstructionworkers

I heard a couple of owners of small construction businesses on the radio yesterday.

They wished to distance themselves from the actions of the few.
They appreciated the freedoms they had, and how the actions of the protesting construction workers would be negatively received by the public.

Much like the lockdown protest today where the actions of a few thousand do not reflect the attitudes of nearly 7 million Victorians

[GO FURTHER]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

#notallconstructionworkers

I heard a couple of owners of small construction businesses on the radio yesterday.

They wished to distance themselves from the actions of the few.
They appreciated the freedoms they had, and how the actions of the protesting construction workers would be negatively received by the public.

Much like the lockdown protest today where the actions of a few thousand do not reflect the attitudes of nearly 7 million Victorians

What annoys me, is that no one or any group should be above the law.

If I and a few mates had set up tables and a tea party in the middle of a public road disrupting traffic, the police would have moved us on, fined or arrested us.

Why should the CFMEU or bunch of construction workers be allowed to get away with it.

The police should have stepped in, irrespective of any backlash.

Protests and freedom of speech is one thing, but breaking the law is not acceptable.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

#notallconstructionworkers

I heard a couple of owners of small construction businesses on the radio yesterday.

They wished to distance themselves from the actions of the few.
They appreciated the freedoms they had, and how the actions of the protesting construction workers would be negatively received by the public.

Much like the lockdown protest today where the actions of a few thousand do not reflect the attitudes of nearly 7 million Victorians

Yep, jackass big building site mentality.

[Work Horse]

As it has been said many times,"we need freedom of speech so we know who the idiots are!"

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by GO FURTHER

What annoys me, is that no one or any group should be above the law.

If I and a few mates had set up tables and a tea party in the middle of a public road disrupting traffic, the police would have moved us on, fined or arrested us.

Why should the CFMEU or bunch of construction workers be allowed to get away with it.

The police should have stepped in, irrespective of any backlash.

Protests and freedom of speech is one thing, but breaking the law is not acceptable.

It was a typical CFMEU stunt that achieved their aim if you care to read between the lines, a message was sent to Daniel Andrews from his supporters nothing more.
Just like the last BLM protest.

Cheers

[wodahs]

Originally Posted by GO FURTHER

What annoys me, is that no one or any group should be above the law.

If I and a few mates had set up tables and a tea party in the middle of a public road disrupting traffic, the police would have moved us on, fined or arrested us.

must be the tea set i use but usually they leave me alone and label me mad

and if thats not enough wait till i put up my castle fort cubby house

Originally Posted by Hippy

FEDFA ,, which meant , federated engine drivers etc .

50 years . earthmoving . Aus , PNG . Mallaca ..

SOME COULD NOT GRADE SHEEP S'' OFF A MARBLE FLOOR

Bloody fergotten more than the wannabes Know Taday

Kinda went against me grain when they said in 'bout '92 when multi s /Killing

came in .. i called it ..


your no an Operater , you are Mine Worker..

Cool story bro... Needs more dragons and ****

[DJR-351]

More fisticuffs in Melbourne....

https://www.9news.com.au/national/co...iolent-_180921

[CoupeKing]

I'll add to that if I may. And it's not just here its global. These are hotdog-stand-queues compared to what's happening abroad.

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by Hippy

FEDFA ,, which meant , federated engine drivers etc .

50 years . earthmoving . Aus , PNG . Mallaca ..

SOME COULD NOT GRADE SHEEP S'' OFF A MARBLE FLOOR

Bloody fergotten more than the wannabes Know Taday

Kinda went against me grain when they said in 'bout '92 when multi s /Killing

came in .. i called it ..


your no an Operater , you are Mine Worker..

Wow!.......



Cheers Billy........retired member AMWSU.

[Hippy]

Originally Posted by TrVrPhiLpsiNdstrys

Cool story bro... Needs more dragons and ****

when i was in Moronbah mid 80's . knew heaps of dragons there

plus a few tyre biters ..

often wondered if i may have left some offspring there ...

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by CoupeKing

I'll add to that if I may. And it's not just here its global. These are hotdog-stand-queues compared to what's happening abroad.

You sound excited Coupe, I can almost detect a squeaky voice in
that post

https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/co...b5bd0317e0d282

"Earlier on Burnley St, some protesters pleaded with police to let them through while others could be heard yelling: “No one has died from Covid.”

Another said: “Take off your badge and stand with us.”

Inexplicably none of the 2000 police present did take off their badge and stand with the 500-600 protestors .

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

You sound excited Coupe, I can almost detect a squeaky voice in
that post

https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/co...b5bd0317e0d282

"Earlier on Burnley St, some protesters pleaded with police to let them through while others could be heard yelling: “No one has died from Covid.”

Another said: “Take off your badge and stand with us.”

Inexplicably none of the 2000 police present did take off their badge and stand with the 500-600 protestors .

That's very interesting!....coppers with brains!....


Cheers Billy

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

You sound excited Coupe, I can almost detect a squeaky voice in
that post

https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/co...b5bd0317e0d282

"Earlier on Burnley St, some protesters pleaded with police to let them through while others could be heard yelling: “No one has died from Covid.”

Another said: “Take off your badge and stand with us.”

Inexplicably none of the 2000 police present did take off their badge and stand with the 500-600 protestors .

In Melb, 235 arrested, 10 cops injured. Another day's work, another $1.1m in the coffers.

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

In Melb, 235 arrested, 10 cops injured. Another day's work, another $1.1m in the coffers.

The police should have let the protestors demonstrate and vent their ****, no one would have been hurt on either side.
Don't need the comment they are spreading the virus as the protestors were going to be there; whether lawful or not.
As far as I'm concerned just waste of resources & money trying to stop them and people got hurt.
No winners with this protest.

[russellw]

It's about time VicPol turned up in decent numbers to deal with the rabid rabble who think that breaching lockdown restrictions to have a violent brawl with police is a good thing.

It's a shame that some of the people tasked with keeping our streets safe got hurt in the melee but good to see that almost half the nutters got arrested.

We all want to see an end to the lockdowns in the safest manner possible but that sort of behaviour along with the childish actions by some construction workers yesterday is perhaps just a sad reflection of where we are as a society.

Nobody else can gather large numbers of people in confined spaces so I'm not sure why a few builders thought they were any more special than the rest of us except they were allowed to go to work and (until yesterday) allowed to bring their infections back into the 'commuter' fringes like Geelong and my area.

Frankly, if you want to abuse the privilege of being able to work - and there were plenty of warnings handed out about the risk associated with 'tea rooms' and the 73% non-compliance from the blitz last week - then you can only blame your stupid selves for the outcome.

The facts are simple. 13% of our current 4,974 active cases (~1,100) are linked to construction sites and their average spread, as I mentioned earlier, is 40 km and we know the REFF value for Delta is currently about 6 for people not isolating so that percentage will only grow.

[George V]

Policing and managing protests -

Perhaps, Vic Police may want to spend some time with their NSW counterparts and learn how it is done.

Cheers,
George V

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Itsme

The police should have let the protestors demonstrate and vent their ****, no one would have been hurt on either side.
Don't need the comment they are spreading the virus as the protestors were going to be there; whether lawful or not.
As far as I'm concerned just waste of resources & money trying to stop them and people got hurt.
No winners with this protest.

I think during the 2nd lock down's protest, some "expert" mentioned that they should do just that. No cops or media turn up, just let them run in circles yelling at each other, they'll soon get bored and go home.

Sounds like it might work in theory. Although, it did look like a couple of hundred of them weren't really out there to make a protest, but rather wanted to do some damage. So do you run the risk of them thrashing the city? 200 this time, you can bet there will be more next time if there was no deterrent.

Similar scenes in Brisbane, so I don't get it. Is it an indication that some people are just using this as an excuse?

[Syndrome]

In a democracy it is not illegal to disagree with government, it is not illegal to invoke the freedom of speech to voice one's opinion, and it is not illegal to demonstrate. What we saw yesterday was shameful as the government attempts to intimidate those who refuse to be submissive. These are the actions of a totalitarian government which is what is expected in countries like China, but not countries like Australia.

[russellw]

The vaccination, not a race, progress is interesting.

ACT has fully vaccinated 54.7% of eligible 16+ (52.3% of 12+ and 44.0% total)
NSW has fully vaccinated 52.57% of eligible 16+ (49.0% of 12+ and 41.7% total)
Tas has fully vaccinated 50.61% of eligible 16+ (48.3% of 12+ and 41.7% total)
NT has fully vaccinated 46.7% of eligible 16+ (44.2% of 12+ and 36.5% total)
VIC has fully vaccinated 42.88% of eligible 16+ (41.2% of 12+ and 35.5% total)
SA has fully vaccinated 42.84% of eligible 16+ (41.2% of 12+ and 35.4% total)
Qld has fully vaccinated 40.59% of eligible 16+ (38.5% of 12+ and 32.5% total)
WA has fully vaccinated 40.55% of eligible 16+ (38.6% of 12+ and 32.5% total)



Nationally we have fully vaccinated 45.94% of eligible 16+ (43.6% of 12+ and 36.8% total).

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by Itsme

The police should have let the protestors demonstrate and vent their ****, no one would have been hurt on either side.
Don't need the comment they are spreading the virus as the protestors were going to be there; whether lawful or not.
As far as I'm concerned just waste of resources & money trying to stop them and people got hurt.
No winners with this protest.

That's called Anarchy!......its fine if all the protesters were civil and kept it peaceful, but its not like that is it, with or without the police they are on a path of destruction, they are not all like you and me, most are out to cause trouble, or, use the trouble as a diversionary tactic to cause more mayhem behind the scenes.

This is caveman stuff, middle ages stupidity?.......



Cheers Billy

[russellw]

Originally Posted by Syndrome

In a democracy it is not illegal to disagree with government, it is not illegal to invoke the freedom of speech to voice one's opinion, and it is not illegal to demonstrate. What we saw yesterday was shameful as the government attempts to intimidate those who refuse to be submissive. These are the actions of a totalitarian government which is what is expected in countries like China, but not countries like Australia.

Not right. The gathering yesterday was illegal under the current restrictions in place in Victoria and those restrictions have been put in place by our duly elected representatives in the best interests of us all.

If you don't like it then you get a chance to have your say at the next election but to suggest that enforcing the law is 'shameful' and 'intimidatory' just puts you in the same category as those idiots.

Go and spend some time in China or another totalitarian regime and tell me if you think we've got it bad here.