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#10621 | ||
DIY Tragic
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Sydney, more than not. I hate it.
Posts: 21,767
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That sounds intense, the shock will linger with you a while.
If his daughter has an iPhone or iPad, any PDF from the medical team (to justify her flight) can be attached directly to an iMessage. I mention this as it can add a little convenience. |
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#10622 | |||
BLUE OVAL INC.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 8,636
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Quote:
He's been my best mate for 35yrs, closer than any of my siblings and has no family of his own in SA so im trying to be so many different things whilst grieving and contemplating the future without him. |
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#10623 | ||
Chairman & Administrator
![]() ![]() Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 106,997
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Data valid as at 00:00 GMT May 11th, 2021.
Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting. 7 new cases for Australia and no deaths so the CMR is 3.040%. No new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.983% and active cases 27. The UK had a higher 2,474 cases yesterday and 20 deaths. Just over 30k new cases in the USA yesterday and 394 deaths sees CMR at 1.779%. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences. Other notable points: Global cases pass 160M, the last 1M in 1 day; South America passes 26M cases; India passes 23M cases; Only - Maldives (1,501); Bahrain (1,732); and Nepal (9,317) ... recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day. No countries move above the 90th percentile for their 10 day average and none drop below.
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Observatio Facta Rotae
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#10624 | ||
I drank what?
Join Date: May 2006
Location: In a state of confusion
Posts: 570
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Don't worry about the cross border application time. I did mine on my phone while taxiing to the runway at Tullamarine airport. I totally forgot to do it beforehand. She'll be fine.
Sorry to hear about your mate.
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I will not be taking any criticism, constructive or otherwise.
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#10625 | ||
Chairman & Administrator
![]() ![]() Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 106,997
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Let's have a look at how some Asian countries are faring.
We'll start with India - after the first wave they had a reasonably steady period before this second wave started in mid March and it has been much worse than the first with their peak only coming last week. ![]() Azerbaijan - after the first wave ended in July last year they had a reasonably steady period before a worse second wave started in mid October and then a 3rd smaller wave which peaked in April this year. ![]() Bahrain - they are probably now on their fourth wave although it could be argued that they never really got over the third wave and this one probably still hasn't peaked because yesterday was a new high. ![]() Bangladesh - the first and second waves were fairly close followed by a steady period between January and mid-March this year before a much worse third wave which peaked in early April this year. ![]() Cyprus - they really didn't have their first wave until October last year but it lasted awhile and peaked in late December but they also had a bigger second wave which started in early March and peaked in mid April this year. ![]() Georgia - they also really didn't have their first wave until late September last year but it lasted awhile and peaked in mid December but they are also now having a second (smaller) wave which started in mid April and probably hasn't peaked yet. ![]() Indonesia - has really just had a long first wave that peaked in mid January and still hasn't dropped back to the levels of mid last year. ![]() Iran - has two distinct waves but the first was steady for almost 6 months before peaking in mid November while the second wave started at the end of March and is still going although it peaked in mid-April. What is clear from the relatively flat trend line is that they really haven't got on top of it at any point. ![]() Iraq - also has two distinct waves with the first lasting from June to November while the (bigger) second wave started in early February and is still going although it peaked in late-April. ![]() Israel - also has two distinct waves with the first lasting from June to October, peaking in September, while the second wave started in early December and ran until mid-March but since then case numbers have dropped to almost nothing. ![]() Japan - has four distinct waves with the third of those (November to February) being the worst, peaking in early January, while the fourth wave started in late March and is still going with the peak of this wave only a few days back. ![]() Jordan - has only had two distinct waves with the first of those not starting until late September and peaking in November while the second (bigger) wave started in late February but has been in decline since mid April with the peak in mid March. ![]() Kazakhstan - has three distinct waves with each being worse then the previous wave. The third and biggest wave started in mid March and is still continuing with the peak (so far) only last week. ![]() Kuwait - has two distinct waves but each has lasted for an extended time period. The second and biggest wave started in early January and is still continuing and despite the peak being in early March, current case numbers are still above the 90th percentile so they aren't getting to grips with it. ![]() Lebanon - really only has one very long wave that started in July last year, peaked in mid January this year and then gradually declined (albeit with a couple of spikes) till now - where it is at manageable levels. ![]() Malaysia - has had two waves - the first (and worst) started in October last year, peaked in mid January this year and then gradually declined before the second started around mid April and is still going with the peak of this wave (so far) only last week. ![]() Myanmar - has had only a single wave which started in August last year, peaked in mid October and was over by the end of January since when they have had almost no cases to speak of and they make a very good example of a country which took a determined approach to eradication. ![]() Nepal - currently in the midst of their third and worst wave which started in mid April and probably hasn't peaked yet with the current 'high' being recorded yesterday. ![]() Oman - also currently in the midst of their third wave which is better than the first but worse than the second and which started in early March and peaked in late April but hasn't yet returned to 'normal' levels and the trend line is still upward overall. ![]() Pakistan - also currently in the midst of their third wave which is better than the first but worse than the second and which started in early March and peaked in mid April but hasn't yet returned to 'normal' levels and the trend line is still upward overall. ![]() Palestine - has had two distinct waves with the second (starting in November last year) being the worst; peaking in early December and over by the end of January and although the case numbers have returned to the level they were at between the two waves, that level is still too high. ![]() Philippines - currently in the midst of their second wave which is much worse than the first and which started in early March and peaked in early April but hasn't yet returned to 'normal' levels and the trend line is still upward overall. ![]() South Korea - currently in the midst of their third wave which is worse than the first but better than the second and which started in early April and peaked in late April but hasn't yet returned to 'normal' levels although the trend line is now downward overall. ![]() Sri Lanka - currently in the midst of their second wave which is much worse than the first and which started in late April and probably hasn't peaked yet with the current 'high' only a couple of days ago. ![]() Syria - currently at the end of their third (or maybe even fourth) and worst wave which started in early March and peaked in late March. ![]() Turkey - also at the end of their third and worst wave which started in early March and peaked in mid April but hasn't yet returned to 'normal' levels and the trend line is still upward overall. ![]() UAE - best described as a good example of what not to do, it's hard to know if the current wave is their second or third but case numbers have continued to get worse each wave and although the peak of this current wave was back in January case numbers are still too high. ![]()
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Observatio Facta Rotae
Last edited by russellw; 12-05-2021 at 01:49 PM. |
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#10626 | |||
WT GT
![]() Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: The GSS
Posts: 17,758
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Hundreds of AFL fans urged to test and isolate after train service listed as exposure site
Quote:
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#10627 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 6,890
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Interesting Pakistan and Bangladesh have not seen the same sustained spike as India, even though they share quite a large border. If India does decide to go with a nation wide lock down, I wonder if people will try to get over?
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#10628 | ||
WT GT
![]() Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: The GSS
Posts: 17,758
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Victorian authorities blame new Covid case on South Australian quarantine
https://www.theguardian.com/australi...outh-australia |
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#10629 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 6,890
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Quote:
Testing confirms Melbourne man picked up COVID-19 in hotel quarantine https://www.theage.com.au/national/a...09.html#p526ya 6:02pm - Travellers discharged from SA hotel quarantine told to self-isolate |
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#10630 | |||
Experienced Member
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Australasia
Posts: 7,529
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Quote:
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#10631 | ||
BANNED
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 2,886
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Gain of function research, thanks to China and the US.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gain_of_function_research https://dreddymd.com/2021/04/09/fauc...uced-covid-19/
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Please press the "Like" button if you enjoy my posts. (It's the red triangle with exclamation mark on the left) |
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#10632 | |||
WT GT
![]() Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: The GSS
Posts: 17,758
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Covid pandemic was preventable, says WHO-commissioned report
Quote:
Easy to be wise after the event I guess... ![]() |
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#10633 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 6,890
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Quote:
According to the WHO timeline, I would say decisions made in January was the pivotal point. https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...tive-timeline#! Have a look at the events from 15th to 25th Jan. There was a real chance for the world to stop it in its tracks, but many chose economy over health. Now, given the political events that have transpired, I can't see how the "world" can agree on a set of standards. Independence no longer exists. |
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#10634 | ||
Chairman & Administrator
![]() ![]() Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 106,997
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Data valid as at 00:00 GMT May 12th, 2021.
Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting. 8 new cases for Australia and no deaths so the CMR is 3.039%. -1 case and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.984% and active cases 26. The UK had a lower 2,284 cases yesterday and 11 deaths. Just over 35k new cases in the USA yesterday and 741 deaths sees CMR at 1.779%. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences. Other notable points: Global cases pass 161M, the last 1M in 1 day; Asia passes 45M cases; Trinidad & Tobago (615); PNG (771); and Paraguay (2,828) ... recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day. No countries move above the 90th percentile for their 10 day average and Pakistan drops below.
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Observatio Facta Rotae
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#10635 | ||
Chairman & Administrator
![]() ![]() Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 106,997
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So, yesterday we looked at Asia where the results were a bit mixed which view is supported by the fact that 13 of the 32 countries we watch closely are above their 90th percentile as is the 10-day rolling average.
Today we are going to look at North & South America where 15 of the 19 countries we watch are above their 90th percentile as is the 10-day rolling average for South America. South America first. Argentina Currently in the midst of a third and worse wave which started back in early April and peaked in mid April. Having said that, the drop between the waves hasn't been big enough with rolling averages still above 5k cases/day which only looks good next to the current 21k cases/day average. ![]() Brazil Basically a basket case. The relatively smooth (upward) trend-line is a good indication that they really haven't got to grips with the pandemic at all and the small dip in October last year was nothing more than a brief respite. The only plus is that the peak of nearly 100k cases was in late March but the current 60k cases/day average isn't far under the 90th percentile and 6 of the last 10 days have been over that mark. ![]() Chile They are probably just coming off their 2nd (or maybe 3rd) wave which peaked in early April but the current 4.9k cases/day average is too many and 2 of the last 10 days have been over the 90th percentile. ![]() Colombia Starting to come off their 3rd wave which started in late March and peaked in late April but the current 15.5k cases/day average is still over the 90th percentile and 6 of the last 10 days have also been over that mark so this wave has a way to go yet. ![]() Ecuador Another relatively flat trend line that has started to trend upward and peaked only a couple of weeks back. The current 1,733 cases/day average is just below the 90th percentile but 2 of the last 10 days have also been over that mark. ![]() Peru They are now coming out of their third and largest wave which started in early January and peaked in mid April although the trend line is only just starting to flatten. The current 5.3k cases/day average is below the 90th percentile but 1 of the last 10 days has been over that mark. ![]() Uruguay A bit of an odd case. They managed to get through most of last year with very low case numbers but the current wave which started in late November saw a rapid climb in case numbers and peaked in mid April although the trend line is still upward. The current 2.5k cases/day average is well above the 90th percentile and 8 of the last 10 days have been over that mark. ![]() Venezuela Still in the midst of their 2nd wave which started in mid March and peaked in early April although the trend line is still upward. The current 1,125 cases/day average is above the 90th percentile and 6 of the last 10 days have also been over that mark. ![]() North America is in the post below.
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Observatio Facta Rotae
Last edited by russellw; 13-05-2021 at 02:23 PM. |
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#10636 | ||
Chairman & Administrator
![]() ![]() Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 106,997
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North America.
USA They are stabilising after their second and largest wave which started in late October and peaked in early January although the current 40k cases/day average is too many even if it is a lot less than the 190k 90th percentile. ![]() Canada They are now coming out of their third and largest wave which started in late March and peaked in early April although the current 6.8k cases/day average is only just below the 90th percentile and 4 of the last 10 days have been above it. ![]() Costa Rica They are now in the midst of their second and largest wave which started in early April and (maybe) peaked a few days ago although the current 2.2k cases/day average is well above the 90th percentile and 9 of the last 10 days have been above it. ![]() Cuba Another odd case. They also managed to get through most of last year with very low case numbers but the current wave which really started back in late December saw a rapid climb in case numbers and peaked in mid April although the trend line continues upward so it isn't over. The current 1,068 cases/day average is above the 90th percentile and 8 of the last 10 days have been over that mark. ![]() Dominican Republic They might be starting a third wave although it's hard to tell when the troughs have been quite small. The current 604 cases/day average is well below the 90th percentile and none of the last 10 days have been above it so the next few weeks will tell more. ![]() ![]() Guatemala They might be starting a second wave although it's hard to tell when the case numbers have been consistently high after the first wave. The current 900 cases/day average is a bit below the 90th percentile but 6 of the last 10 days have been above it. ![]() Honduras They also might be starting a third wave although it's hard to tell when the case numbers have been high and a bit 'spiky' after the first wave. The current 890 cases/day average is a bit below the 90th percentile but 3 of the last 10 days have been above it. ![]() Mexico Something of a success story as their 2nd wave peaked in mid January and case numbers have been in decline ever since. The current 2.1 cases/day average is well below the 11k 90th percentile and it's been a good while since any days have been above it. ![]() Panama Another success story as their 2nd (and largest) wave peaked in mid January and case numbers have been in decline ever since. The current 374 cases/day average is well below the 2k 90th percentile and it's been a months since any days have been above it. ![]()
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Observatio Facta Rotae
Last edited by russellw; 13-05-2021 at 02:22 PM. |
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#10637 | |||
Regular Member
Join Date: Sep 2018
Posts: 420
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Quote:
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#10638 | ||
Chairman & Administrator
![]() ![]() Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 106,997
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Thanks. Fixed that and also resized the small ones.
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Observatio Facta Rotae
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#10639 | |||
Peter Car
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: geelong
Posts: 23,145
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Quote:
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#10640 | ||
WT GT
![]() Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: The GSS
Posts: 17,758
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Victoria’s COVID QR code system flaws trigger new $1652 on-the-spot fine for businesses
A new on-the-spot fine has been announced for Victorian businesses after a COVID-19 scare exposed flaws with the QR code system. https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/healt...sses-c-2829961 |
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#10641 | ||
DIY Tragic
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Sydney, more than not. I hate it.
Posts: 21,767
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I remain bemused at the vaccination “circus” in Australia. While other first world countries appear to be getting on with innoculating the willing, we appear stuck in a boot loop with what - approximately 2.7M?* - total doses administered. Long way to go.
We’ve made rules about getting it, changed those rules, and most significantly - in the vein of spruikers forward-selling happiness - our powers keep announcing stuff that’s yet to come. Deals, not physical progress. It’s like the old days of computer software where the joke was an improved or replacement version was coming “real soon now”. * Source: ABC news article |
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#10642 | |||
WT GT
![]() Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: The GSS
Posts: 17,758
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Quote:
Country, deaths USA, 600k France, 108k UK, 128k Italy, 124k Germany, 87k Belgium, 25k Canada, 25k Yeah, they've done a bang-up job... ![]() |
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#10643 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 706
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Quote:
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#10644 | ||
DIY Tragic
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Sydney, more than not. I hate it.
Posts: 21,767
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#10645 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 6,890
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Quote:
Did you know that under 50s can now "sign up" for the pfizer jab in golden state? roll up roll up....don't let the train leave you behind. |
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#10646 | ||
Chairman & Administrator
![]() ![]() Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 106,997
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Data valid as at 00:00 GMT May 13th, 2021.
Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting. 4 new cases for Australia and no deaths so the CMR is 3.038%. 1 case and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.983% and active cases 18. The UK had a higher 2,656 cases yesterday and 11 deaths. Just under 36k new cases in the USA yesterday and 834 deaths sees CMR at 1.780%. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences. Other notable points: Global deaths pass 3.35M, the last 50k in 4 days; North America passes 39M cases; India passes 24M cases; Bahrain (1,816); and Sri Lanka (3,269) ... recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day. No countries move above the 90th percentile for their 10 day average and the Netherlands drops below.
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Observatio Facta Rotae
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#10647 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 706
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Quote:
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#10648 | ||
Chairman & Administrator
![]() ![]() Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 106,997
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I've said before that the case for returning to a 'new normal' state, whatever that might be, is predicated on getting down to global mortality rates that are similar to those we already accept for Influenza at about 0.5M per annum.
Even if we accept the best case scenario and ~80% of the global population gets vaccinated (unlikely) and the vaccines are 100% effective (which we know isn't true) and we can keep outbreaks out of aged care and the real mortality rate is halved to 1% of those infected and the global rate for infections per 100k halves to 1k/100k then: - that is potentially 15.6M new infections and 155k deaths (at 1%) or 310k (at the current 2%) which is probably below the level that we are willing to accept globally but even then we'd see the occasional localised 'spike' that had much higher infection and mortality rates like we saw here in Victoria and I'm not so sure what the appetite for that is. If I ruled the world, I'd be gathering another year of data to see if we really are slowing down infection rates by vaccination alone or if the (small) improvements we've seen in some countries is more due to other countermeasures. I know India has been hurting the global numbers but in the real world (just like Influenza) those localised outbreaks are not unusual and generally happen somewhere each year. Leaving India out of the global case numbers for this year does show an apparent improvement albeit with a big caveat: 10-day average case numbers were 675k/day in early January although the Americans were the ones taking a hammering and setting record case numbers at the time as was Europe; This was down to 380k/day by March after the USA and some of Europe had gotten over the worst; and It's only dropped fractionally since then with the May average thus far at 378.5k/day as Europe comes out of their worst while Asia and South America head into theirs. To achieve a global mortality figure similar to Influenza of half a million people that's got to come down by a shedload to somewhere between 68k/day at 2% mortality or 137k/day at 1% - if the latter is even achievable. Here are the global case numbers since January with India left out. ![]()
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#10649 | |||
Experienced Member
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Australasia
Posts: 7,529
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Quote:
How often do read, see and hear the authorities pleading for people to get vaccinated. |
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#10650 | |||
WT GT
![]() Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: The GSS
Posts: 17,758
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Repatriation flight seats left empty after Australians test positive for COVID-19 in India
Quote:
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