Covid 19 -

[EgoFG]

Interesting bypoint: as yet even fully vaccinated people need to government quarantine on entering Australia.

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by cs123

That’s what the original plan was. Flatten the curve so the hospitals could keep things under control. The problem was managing that curve as the virus was so infectious.

But eventually that is what will happen. Vaccinations and infections should get us to herd immunity. The big question for me is the rate at which we are vaccinating. We are at risk of being left behind globally as other nations open up sooner. We won’t be ready.

I'm not as confident as I was say 6 months ago. You look at India, Europe, Latin America and it feels like that it will rage on for years with poor vaccine supplies, annual vaccination requirements, continued lack of border controls outside the Asia Pacific and strain mutations. WHO release states that the pandemic is accelerating globally, with as many infections in the last month as the first six months of the outbreak.

I don't reckon being immunised in Australia is going to magically fix the rest of the world and take us back to where we were. The Fed will maintain iron control of the international borders for a while yet.

[cs123]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

I'm not as confident as I was say 6 months ago. You look at India, Europe, Latin America and it feels like that it will rage on for years with poor vaccine supplies, annual vaccination requirements, continued lack of border controls outside the Asia Pacific and strain mutations. WHO release states that the pandemic is accelerating globally, with as many infections in the last month as the first six months of the outbreak.

I don't reckon being immunised in Australia is going to magically fix the rest of the world and take us back to where we were. The Fed will maintain iron control of the international borders for a while yet.

It's hard to tell. I see that some EU countries will be allowing travel from the USA for recreation if you have a vaccine.

I think 6 months time will be interesting.

But regardless, we really need to get the vaccination rollout happening here.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

I'm not as confident as I was say 6 months ago. You look at India, Europe, Latin America and it feels like that it will rage on for years with poor vaccine supplies, annual vaccination requirements, continued lack of border controls outside the Asia Pacific and strain mutations. WHO release states that the pandemic is accelerating globally, with as many infections in the last month as the first six months of the outbreak.

I don't reckon being immunised in Australia is going to magically fix the rest of the world and take us back to where we were. The Fed will maintain iron control of the international borders for a while yet.

Yes I feel the same....trip next year OS is looking unlikely, its going to be domestic or NZ for a while it seems.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

I'm not as confident as I was say 6 months ago. You look at India, Europe, Latin America and it feels like that it will rage on for years with poor vaccine supplies, annual vaccination requirements, continued lack of border controls outside the Asia Pacific and strain mutations. WHO release states that the pandemic is accelerating globally, with as many infections in the last month as the first six months of the outbreak.

I don't reckon being immunised in Australia is going to magically fix the rest of the world and take us back to where we were. The Fed will maintain iron control of the international borders for a while yet.

I think you are right on the money with that sentiment. The next few months will tell whether we are going to avoid another repeat of what we saw in Victoria last winter but even if we avoid another major outbreak, the reality is that global case numbers continue to rise in real terms with all of the last 13 days (including weekends) being above the 90th percentile and 4 of the last 10 days setting new record highs.

Originally Posted by Charliewool

Western Bulldogs now 6-zip...
I think under humanitarian grounds it’s imperative that I can return for the grannie in Sept!

Two problems with that. (1) They have to keep it up for the rest of the season; and (2) we need to avoid another major lockdown.

I wouldn't be putting money on either.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

The Fed will maintain iron control of the international borders for a while yet.

I'm not sure about "iron"...maybe aluminium. The conditioning has already started. The idea of of allowing vaccinated individuals to self isolate at home rather than in a hotel has already been fed, that would be a huge game changer. And talks of allowing "business people" having a separate quarantine scheme.

Once the major economies start to open up to each other (the US and Europe aren't going to wait for the rest of the world), there will be enormous pressure for us to do the same. Remember when we were asked to "live with the virus" when Victoria had new 50-100 cases a day? That's where the mindset is...or was.

Hopefully what is happening in India has given the Feds a bit of a shake up.

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

McGowan is 10,000% correct but he ain't going to win this battle. So best to just cop the criticisms, keep calm and carry on.

We know the drill now. If/when there is leak, and its in the community, use the snap lock downs to give yourself time. It has worked every single time.

Ignoring cheap jibes coming out of a certain state tends to help too

Not sure about him being 100% right. Why is no one talking about the WA system not removing positive cases to a more applicable site. A few out of a thousand, it is madness leaving them in the hotel. Vic and Qld both do it.

Remote quarantine is dumb in my book. It just makes them feel safer as it is further away. But the recent WA system failure was after release, he would still have come back to a population centre. You also have to transfer travellersthere needing buses etc. Then staffing to manage a thousand people in the middle of nowhere.

Just put positive cases in a health facility, and halt flights from anywhere with a high infection rate. Plus, most countries need a negative test to fly in, does Australia require that?

[CoupeKing]

This is the real problem. Listen to what he said about the biggest epidemic in our history, then note the upload date.

Originally Posted by EgoFG

OK, I have a theory, purely me 'farting in the wind'.

What if the only thing that will actually stop this is herd immunity, whether through infection, or immunisation ? Sounds like a reasonable assumption.

Herd immunity through vaccination has always been the ideal outcome.

Herd immunity through natural infection has never been obtained for novel viruses. It'd probably kill off everyone susceptible to the disease and then.. assuming a level of 'immunity' is even reached.. who's left to be protected by it? We'd also be left with a hell of a lot of permanent organ damage in otherwise healthy people.

Then what is the purpose of masks, physical distancing, lockdown ?

Masks/distancing/lockdowns are to stop the spread of the disease and avoid widespread outbreaks until the science can catch up, where we have most of the population covered by a suitable vaccine. Once outbreaks really get going they're too big to stop, so our best plan of attack is to prevent outbreaks... with masks, physical distancing and lockdowns.

The negative of more extreme masks, physical distance, lockdown is evident in India, and Michigan - we have pushed all the cases as far forward as the population can tolerate, and now we have a deferred uncontrolled explosion.

If we re-open back up before most of the population is vaccinated, yeah probably. I doubt the country will re-open before the completion of the vaccination rollout though?
We're buying ourselves time until the scientists and medical professionals have a solution.

My postulation:
If
1) hospitals are not nearing any limit, and
2) the vulnerable are getting vaccinated, masking and lonely,
then, for everybody else, lets forget Masks, physical distance, lockdown. Allow naturally acquired herd immunity of the strong to grow.

Your strategy was tried by Sweden, they eventually admitted that they were wrong.

Sweden's prime minister admits the country got its coronavirus strategy wrong
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/s...0-12?r=US&IR=T

Coronavirus: Swedish King Carl XVI Gustaf says coronavirus approach 'has failed'
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55347021

Sweden has admitted its coronavirus immunity predictions were wrong as cases soar across the country
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/s...-surge-2020-11

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by tweeked

Not sure about him being 100% right. Why is no one talking about the WA system not removing positive cases to a more applicable site. A few out of a thousand, it is madness leaving them in the hotel. Vic and Qld both do it.

Remote quarantine is dumb in my book. It just makes them feel safer as it is further away. But the recent WA system failure was after release, he would still have come back to a population centre. You also have to transfer travellersthere needing buses etc. Then staffing to manage a thousand people in the middle of nowhere.

Just put positive cases in a health facility, and halt flights from anywhere with a high infection rate. Plus, most countries need a negative test to fly in, does Australia require that?

He is right in that hotels are not built to quarantine an airborne virus. You can move infected individuals to a different hotel, but every time you move someone, there is risk. He is not asking the Feds to take over, he is just asking for help i.e. allow use of a more "appropriate" site. It is a fair ask, the states are doing what is ultimately the federal government's job.

Remote sites can work if done properly. Have staff do shifts on site, maybe month on month off. Not sure what the arrangement is at Howard springs, but I don't think there has been any leaks? Agree the Vic man was after the fact, but theoritically speaking, he may have never caught it if the site was more appropriate. Every time some innocent bugga catches it, there is a risk of long term complication.

My prediction for future border controls:

* Once 1a and 1b vaccinations are complete, there will be pressure on the states to increase quarantine capacities. The feds will have some sort of carrot or stick to entice states to do it. It sounds like Vic is close to choosing a site for their project to increase capacity anyhow.

* Once we are well into 2a (say 60-70%), there will be more bubbles with low risk countries. This is where it is going to get interesting. I reckon countries that have been “successful” in rolling out their jabs will be in the group, so looking at US, UK and the likes.

* By the time we get to 2bs, it will be close to election time. Huge pressure on industries that are hurting. So 2bs may just have to take the hit for the country’s economy.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT April 26th, 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

29 new cases for Australia and no deaths so the CMR is 3.064%.

0 new cases and 0 deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.000% and active cases 33.

The UK had a higher 2,064 cases yesterday and 6 deaths.

Just over 36k new cases in the USA yesterday and 278 deaths sees CMR at 1.786%. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 148M, the last 1M in 2 days;
Europe passes 1M deaths;
North America passes 38M cases;

Only -
Sri Lanka (997);

... recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Libya moves above the 90th percentile for their 10 day average while Norway drops below.

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

He is right in that hotels are not built to quarantine an airborne virus. You can move infected individuals to a different hotel, but every time you move someone, there is risk. He is not asking the Feds to take over, he is just asking for help i.e. allow use of a more "appropriate" site. It is a fair ask, the states are doing what is ultimately the federal government's job.

Remote sites can work if done properly. Have staff do shifts on site, maybe month on month off. Not sure what the arrangement is at Howard springs, but I don't think there has been any leaks? Agree the Vic man was after the fact, but theoritically speaking, he may have never caught it if the site was more appropriate. Every time some innocent bugga catches it, there is a risk of long term complication.

My prediction for future border controls:

* Once 1a and 1b vaccinations are complete, there will be pressure on the states to increase quarantine capacities. The feds will have some sort of carrot or stick to entice states to do it. It sounds like Vic is close to choosing a site for their project to increase capacity anyhow.

* Once we are well into 2a (say 60-70%), there will be more bubbles with low risk countries. This is where it is going to get interesting. I reckon countries that have been “successful” in rolling out their jabs will be in the group, so looking at US, UK and the likes.

* By the time we get to 2bs, it will be close to election time. Huge pressure on industries that are hurting. So 2bs may just have to take the hit for the country’s economy.

The underlined part of your comment is false as the states will not give the Feds the power to run and control, why do you think each state runs their own version of quarantine and none of the premiers are willing to give up control.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Officemanager

The underlined part of your comment is false as the states will not give the Feds the power to run and control, why do you think each state runs their own version of quarantine and none of the premiers are willing to give up control.

Serious? Show me where a state has said no to Feds taking over. Are you confusing it with borders? They are different. I can't imagine states telling the Feds what they can and can't do especially when it contradicts what's in the constitution

States took control because Morrison rocked up to the first meeting with NO plan. Dumbass Andrews suggested states would do it, the rest is history.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Serious? Show me where a state has said no to Feds taking over. Are you confusing it with borders? They are different. I can't imagine states telling the Feds what they can and can't do especially when it contradicts what's in the constitution

States took control because Morrison rocked up to the first meeting with NO plan. Dumbass Andrews suggested states would do it, the rest is history.

I dont know about a quote but I am positive while listening to the ABC in the last couple of days that the guy being interview stated Fed said that they would manage quarantine and the states said no.

[FairmontGS]

Australia pauses all flights from India amid COVID outbreak, readies aid package of ventilators and other medical supplies

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has announced all flights from India to Australia will be temporarily halted, as the South Asian country continues to deal with a record-breaking COVID outbreak that has plunged its medical system into chaos.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-...reak/100098322

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Polyal

I dont know about a quote but I am positive while listening to the ABC in the last couple of days that the guy being interview stated Fed said that they would manage quarantine and the states said no.

Ok, I'll see if I can dig it out tonight. Keen to see exactly what was said, and who said it. Because that has not been the position from the outset. It possibly may be the case now, given that states have invested hundreds of millions of dollars into the program, so I can see how they may be reluctant to write all that off.

Regardless, I still stand by "It is a fair ask, the states are doing what is ultimately the federal government's job." Its in black and white, can't be weaselled out of. States can't override the Feds or the constitution. But Feds can "delegate" to states at their choosing.

Peter Dutton hits back at WA premier, insisting states had agreed to manage hotel quarantine
https://www.theguardian.com/australi...tel-quarantine

Just to clarify, I don't have an issue with states managing it given we are where we are now. What I have a problem with is that those who are ultimately accountible sit back and offer little assistance.

[T3rminator]

Who is responsible for quarantine in Australia?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-...ralia/13070108

"In fact, quarantine was the only health power given to the new Federation in 1901 and has been used to deal with threats ranging from smallpox to the ravages of the Spanish Flu in 1919.

Fast forward to the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic last year and the decision in March to require all overseas arrivals to quarantine for 14 days.

A deal was struck between Prime Minister Scott Morrison and state and territory leaders.

The states and territories agreed to run hotel quarantine as part of their broader responsibility for public health, despite it being a federal role under the constitution."

I remember this was debated at in great lenghts last year. I don't understand how it can be read any other than the Feds being ultimately accountable. Anyway.

[GasoLane]

If I was being really cynical I'd say that the states wanted to run their own show as some had elections coming up.

Now that the elections are over they've had a change of mind?

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by GasoLane

If I was being really cynical I'd say that the states wanted to run their own show as some had elections coming up.

Now that the elections are over they've had a change of mind?

One state hasn't

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Serious? Show me where a state has said no to Feds taking over. Are you confusing it with borders? They are different. I can't imagine states telling the Feds what they can and can't do especially when it contradicts what's in the constitution

States took control because Morrison rocked up to the first meeting with NO plan. Dumbass Andrews suggested states would do it, the rest is history.

States are responsible and run their own Health Departments not the Feds, that is fact.

[FTE217]

Back in March 2020....
Heard of COAG.
The Council of Australian Governments (COAG) held its 48th general meeting today in Sydney. The discussion focussed on Australia’s response to coronavirus (also known as COVID-19) and on recovery from the 2019-20 bushfires. Leaders also made progress on a range of existing COAG priorities, directed at improving the current and future wellbeing of Australians.
Protecting Australians from the impact of coronavirus

Australia is experiencing the impacts of coronavirus, but we are one of the best-prepared countries in the world, thanks to the early actions of all levels of government. Since January 2020, Australian governments have been working together to develop, implement and coordinate strategies to slow the spread of the virus, including through strengthening our world leading health system and implementing border measures. Today, leaders committed to leveraging their combined resources to slow the spread of the virus and ensure Australia stays ahead of the curve in minimising the impact of coronavirus on the Australian community and economy.

With the wellbeing and safety of Australians being their highest priority, leaders will continue to manage the risk of the virus based on the best and latest evidence and medical advice. The new National Partnership Agreement on COVID-19 Response, signed by all leaders today, is a 50-50 shared funding deal between the Commonwealth and the states and territories that will ensure the capacity of our health system to effectively assess, diagnose and treat people with coronavirus in a way that minimises the spread of the virus in the community and protects our most vulnerable. As part of the deal, the Commonwealth will deliver an immediate $100 million advance payment, on a population basis, to the states and territories to prepare the health system.

Coronavirus has been declared a global pandemic and Australia is well prepared, including across non-health sectors. On 25 February 2020, at the request of the Chief Medical Officer, the Australian Government activated the Emergency Response Plan for Communicable Disease Incidents of National Significance: National Arrangements (National CD Plan). The National CD Plan, developed and endorsed by all jurisdictions in 2018, outlines how non-health sectors (such as police, childcare, schools, transport and essential utilities) will support the health sector response. Today, leaders welcomed the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee’s (AHPPC’s) development of a risk‑based decision-making tool for mass gatherings. They agreed to work in a co-ordinated way and have regard to the advice of the AHPPC, should the need arise to adjust services in response to coronavirus. All decisions will be proportionate to the risk.

COAG agreed to commission real-time, transparent protocols, underpinned by advice from the AHPPC and working through the National Coordination Mechanism, to support a consistent approach to containment and preparedness for coronavirus. These protocols will include management of mass gatherings, school closures, health management in remote communities and public transport, with decisions on applying the protocols resting with states and territories. COAG further agreed that the AHPPC advice will have the status of COAG advice, and to implement and follow the advice, as necessary.

https://www.coag.gov.au/meeting-outc...-13-march-2020

FFS its trying in here at times - in and out of here.

[cs123]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Australia pauses all flights from India amid COVID outbreak, readies aid package of ventilators and other medical supplies

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-...reak/100098322

I wonder if that will apply to the cricketers playing in the IPL.. probably not

[MITCHAY]

It was well reported that the states had agreed to run the quarantine program despite it being a federal responsibility.

It would be interesting to see why they had agreed but I imagine at least one of the reasons is they thought they would do a better job and it would be more practical for them to manage it.

As the states are responsible for public health they would have to deal with failure in the program regardless of what was agreed.

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by cs123

I wonder if that will apply to the cricketers playing in the IPL.. probably not

Australia suspends flights from India; Chris Lynn hopes for post-IPL charter home

https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/i...r-home-1261278

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Officemanager

States are responsible and run their own Health Departments not the Feds, that is fact.

No arguments there.

Originally Posted by GasoLane

If I was being really cynical I'd say that the states wanted to run their own show as some had elections coming up.

Now that the elections are over they've had a change of mind?

Nah, it is a thankless task. No one is going to send you a big congratulations for taking care of quarantine, but if anything goes wrong you will get slammed. All risk no reward.
Only thing I can think of is, there was no plan and someone had to act, and the first person to opened their mouth didn't think it through And maybe they saw it as an opportunity to keep some jobs and businesses going.

Oh, the press requested for minutes of the first cabinet meeting under FOI. It was rejected by the Feds, based on "national security". That would have given us an idea on what was discussed and rationale for decisions.

[FairmontGS]

In the absence of any supporting data for the speculation I guess we'll go with the documented release of what transpired

National Cabinet agreed that:

As soon as possible, but no later than 11:59pm Saturday 28 March 2020, all travellers arriving in Australia will be required to undertake their mandatory 14 day self-isolation at designated facilities (for example, a hotel).

Travellers will be transported directly to designated facilities after appropriate immigration, customs and enhanced health checks.

Designated facilities will be determined by the relevant state or territory government and will ordinarily be in the city of entry where the traveller has cleared immigration, but facilities in other areas may be used if required.

These requirements will be implemented under state and territory legislation and will be enforced by state and territory governments, with the support of the Australian Defence Force (ADF) and the Australian Border Force (ABF) where necessary.

The Commonwealth will provide support through the ABF and ADF for these arrangements across Australia, and that states and territories would meet the costs and determine any contributions required for travellers arriving within their jurisdictions.

Air and maritime crews will be required to continue to undertake the existing precautions they are following where they self-isolate in their accommodation if they enter Australia until their next work voyage.

https://www.pm.gov.au/media/update-c...easures-270320

[T3rminator]

Thanks fellas, for providing artifacts to support what was said in the first place. That states agreed to do what is ultimately the Feds job. Which is why they should be providing more assistance when requested.

Not sure why this topic is so trying and sensitive.

[DJR-351]

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Thanks fellas, for providing artifacts to support what was said in the first place. That states agreed to do what is ultimately the Feds job. Which is why they should be providing more assistance when requested.

Not sure why this topic is so trying and sensitive.

I think the issue is there is no resource of people on the feds payroll to do this. I believe this is the reason it was agreed that the states would do it., because they have the health resources on the ground. All that the Feds have is the army, on only a small section of that is health prodessionals with skills in infectious diseases.

We take a simplistic view that 120 years ago quarantine was determined to be a federal task. So we have Border force to enforce our ability on the border. There is no skillset to handle people once through the border. Where would all of the health professionals come from? What facilities are available? I think the vast majority of those going through Quarantine would prefer a comfy hotel to barracks of some kind. And nothing to say they are any better than any hotel room - remember these people will not be allowed to wonder around the facilities and the swimming pool. They will still be confined to a room, with all of the same challenges in a hotel. If you put them in a camp, and run it WA style, there is no difference, they could get infected on day 14, leave the camp and go home. No difference at all, we just feel safer as it is further away.

The critical current failing in WA is they have decided in their wisdom to leave infections people across the corridor from non. That is dumb, has been discovered elsewhere and addressed.


The decision for the states to run it was due to them having the associated peoplepower and access to facilities. It could never have been run by the feds. They made a smart, correct group decision. There was actually no other workable choice.

It is my belief that after 14 days in hotel quarantine, there should be 7 days isolating at home with a further test at day 5 at home.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT April 27th, 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

23 new cases for Australia and no deaths so the CMR is 3.062%.

8 new cases and 0 deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.997% and active cases 36.

The UK had a higher 2,685 cases yesterday and 17 deaths.

Just over 48.5k new cases in the USA yesterday and 342 deaths sees CMR at 1.784%. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 149M, the last 1M in 1 day;
Asia sets a new daily case high of 489,419;
India sets a new global high with 362,902 cases;
Europe passes 44M cases;
Asia passes 0.5M deaths

Only -
Maldives (386);
Réunion (1,038);
Sri Lanka (1,111);
Costa Rica (1,927); and
India (362,902)

... recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for their 10 day average and none drop below.