Covid 19 -

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

oopsy... Things are starting to look shaky when the official party organ (The Age) abandons ship

Fact Check: Would that be the same The Age, that is owned by Nine Ent Co, which held a $10,000 per head fund raiser for the LNP in 2019?

[nstg8a]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Fact Check: Would that be the same The Age, that is owned by Nine Ent Co, which held a $10,000 per head fund raiser for the LNP in 2019?

You're a recent Victorian aren't you?

Too funny though - adverse dan reporting? Declare the source an enemy of the state. What's left? The Warnambool Gazette?

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

You're a recent Victorian aren't you?

Too funny though - adverse dan reporting? Declare the source an enemy of the state. What's left? The Warnambool Gazette?

Adverse dan / vic reporting doesn't really affect us Vics any longer. It mostly comes from one corner that no one really listens to

Hey, you made the claim "party organ", I just fact checked. In Vic, we hold people to account for spreading fake news.

https://www.theguardian.com/media/20...-liberal-party

[Tickford.]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Victoria's hotel quarantine program left out of key taskforce on infection control for frontline workers



https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-...force/13152242

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

oopsy... Things are starting to look shaky when the official party organ (The Age) abandons ship

Victorian hotel quarantine chief Emma Cassar stands by statement her team was not told about nebuliser

Ummm... now where have I heard this before

Victorian Quarantine Enquiry final report: No-one to blame

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-...eased/13002882

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Shifted the family bash to Friday night and now enjoying the weekend with Mum and Dad who I haven't seen since Dec 2019.

Mate... have a break champ. As you've said above, you flew into Melbourne to see your Mum and Dad, who you haven't seen since December 2019. But here you are... still logged onto the forums posting anti-Dan Andrews, Anti-VIC, anti-Melbourne.. umm.. stuff. Spend the little time you have in Melbourne with your Mum and Dad and give the forums a break. Your parents will appreciate it. You can resume normal transmission when you get back to Sydney tomorrow.

[nstg8a]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Adverse dan / vic reporting doesn't really affect us Vics any longer. It mostly comes from one corner that no one really listens to

Hey, you made the claim "party organ", I just fact checked. In Vic, we hold people to account for spreading fake news.

https://www.theguardian.com/media/20...-liberal-party

Anyone that uses ‘fact checked’ in a serious way instantly loses any credibility they may have had.

[jmack]

gee the force is strong with arnie and donkey boy

[George V]

As an outside looking in - Vic new revamped quarantine system, which is a two tier system seems to tick all the boxes.

A general quarantine hotel setup and another higher level hospital managed hotel for infected persons. Special accommodation facilities for workers, so they will not spread virus etc.. All seems good, but,

It does not seems like they did sufficient assessment on ventilation systems of general quarantine hotels. Also, one would expect staff working in those areas are part of households where there are other people working in similar or other hospitality related jobs which increases speed of infection spread.

If a person becomes infectious even before getting tested and before results are known - then then it is recipe for an accident waiting to happen.

PPE should not the the primary mode of managing risk; It does not look like the other primary form of controls are sufficiently thought through or managed well.

Blaming it on UK variant seems like an excuse - everyone knows it is coming and what ware the control measures??

In other words, Vic quarantine does have room to improve; we do not know about other states weak points yet.

Regards,
George V

[Jack91]

Bunnings was a dream today without crying kids and weekend warriors jamming up all the aisles.
Surprised they wanted proof of trade at drive in, but good on them, I'd be happy if that rule stayed.
Because there's always one flog who parks at the end of the aisle to load up and blocks everyone in.
Or the bloke who drives to the gate, then gets out to pay.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by jmack

gee the force is strong with arnie and donkey boy

the amount of circle jerking that goes on whenever something unfortunate happens in Vic is disappointing.......worse is when fellow vics join.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT February 13th, 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

5 new cases for Australia and no deaths so the CMR is 3.146%.

2 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.074% and active cases 45.

The UK had 13,307 cases yesterday and 621 deaths.

Just over 105k new cases in the USA yesterday and 4,178 deaths sees CMR up to 1.757%. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Global cases pass 109M, the last 1M in 2 days;

No countries (for the third consecutive day)

... recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

[russellw]

One of the question that has been posed in various countries, is the question as to what level of infection (and consequent) deaths we will have to live with in the future if we accept that complete herd immunity is not a viable option and nor is eradication - well at least not without permanent travel bans.

We know that countries like Italy and Switzerland are seriously consideringion a question right now - "Can we live with the current case / mortality rate rather than further damage our economy?".

Here is a little table based on the last 10 day average case numbers in some countries we have focused on - it should be noted that (thus far) I'm not aware that any of these except Switzerland are having that conversation. Let me explain.

The first three columns are fairly self explanatory as they represent the cases, deaths and CMR to date. The next two columns are the 10-day average of new cases for each country and that number translated to cases per 100k of population.

The next two columns are a 'what-if no further reductions in case numbers were to happen from today' scenario that extrapolates the current case rate into an annual figure and then applies the present CMR for that country and estimates the deaths that would result.

The final two columns apply the case rate for that country to Australia to extrapolate case and mortality numbers if we accepted a similar continuous infection rate to those countries.



Next is the same table for selected African nations, some of which (Angola / Kenya) might be arguably close to an acceptable level - assuming there has to be one:



Next is the same table for selected Asian nations, some of which (Afghanistan / Nepal) might be arguably close to an acceptable level:



Next is the same table for selected European nations, none of which seem even reasonably close to an acceptable level but we know that conversation is taking place in Italy right now:



Next is the same table for selected South American nations, none of which seem even reasonably close to an acceptable level but we know that conversation is taking place in both Argentina, Brazil and Ecuador right now:



Finally, the same table for selected North American nations, none of which seem even reasonably close to an acceptable level:



Just food for thought.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by russellw

One of the question that has been posed in various countries, is the question as to what level of infection (and consequent) deaths we will have to live with in the future if we accept that complete herd immunity is not a viable option and nor is eradication - well at least not without permanent travel bans.

We know that countries like Italy and Switzerland are seriously consideringion a question right now - "Can we live with the current case / mortality rate rather than further damage our economy?".

.......

I think it'll end up being a regional (hopefully global) consensus. If you have individual countries making their own calls, then what we'll see is the world segregating into bubbles and locking countries / regions out that don't comply with their method. Not good.

I think once you reach 70-80% immunisation rate, then things will have to return to "normal", regardless of stats. Hence why it is important to ensure vaccine is accessible to "poorer" countries and not let the "rich" hoard it all. Some countries have ordered 2 or 3 times more than they need "just in case", which just means the poorer countries are left out.

[T3rminator]

Australia stops quarantine-free travel for New Zealand after COVID-19 cases

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-...vid19/13154240

Travel bubble shut to NZ after 3 cases. Seems drastic after all the hoohah about proportionate response? Or is the unknown patient zero concerning them?

Mate from UK recently moved his family to Auckland. After 2 days in quarantine in NZ, they were hit with news of the UK strain being detected. Now after a few days free from quarantine, they are back in lock down . Wanted to come to Aust for a visit but that's now off the table. Talk about bad timing.

FairmontGS - despite all the banter, here is hoping you make it back to gold standard state. Good luck.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT February 14th, 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

6 new cases for Australia and no deaths so the CMR is 3.146%.

2 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.073% and active cases 47.

The UK had 10,972 cases yesterday and 258 deaths.

Just under 86.5k new cases in the USA yesterday and 2,272 deaths sees CMR up to 1.759%. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Asia passes 24M cases;

No countries (for the fourth consecutive day)

... recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

[Citroënbender]

Victoria has apparently today logged a case of Schrödinger’s Coronavirus, according to reports.

Unrelated…

Not that he deserves a whole lotta love^(TM), but Neil Mitchell late yesterday was credited with an op-ed piece on the Nine channels where he outlined a farcical contact tracing event:

A few days ago our "elite" contact tracers contacted a man to tell him he was COVID-19 positive. Let's call him patient N, for nebuliser. They tracked him down to an intensive care ward where he was being treated for the virus and had been for days.

Source

[russellw]

I've been trying to come up with something that might approach an 'acceptable' level of community infection based around what we currently accept for influenza. It's currently estimated that around 10% of the global population gets it each year and that results in ~0.5M deaths or 0.06% of cases - much lower than the current global 2.2% of case mortalities for COVID-19.

If 0.5M deaths is what we are prepared as a society to tolerate then with the current mortality rate for COVID 19 that amounts to ~25M cases annually or to put it another way about 311 cases per 100k of population or ~0.853 cases per day.

Using the tables from yesterday, Australia is there (at 0.02) as are India (0.8), Algeria (0.6), Angola (0.1), Egypt (0.5), Ethiopia (0.6), Kenya (0.3), Nigeria (0.5), Afghanistan (0.1), Nepal (0.4), Pakistan (0.6) and S Korea (0.8) while none of the European or North/South American countries are at that level - in fact for most not even close.

The Asian average of the countries we are watching is 12.2 with Israel worst at 67.7;
The European average is even higher at 23.3 with Czechia worst at 91.3;
The South American average is 14.6 with Brazil worst on 22.4;
The North American average is 9.5 with Panama far an away the worst on 20.4.

Even if you doubled the acceptable rate to 1M that's still only 1.6 cases per day as a global average (based on 50M cases for 1M deaths at the 2% CMR).

We're going to need a lot of help globally from the vaccination program.

[tweeked]

One thing I have not heard about the vaccine concept saving us. If the vaccine does not stop you being infected, but stops progression to disease, then in what way will a vaccine allow travel? Go overseas, get infected but stay healthy, then go to the nearest Bunnings/Cafe/RSL club? Will these "infected" people not be any risk to the rest of the public?

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by tweeked

One thing I have not heard about the vaccine concept saving us. If the vaccine does not stop you being infected, but stops progression to disease, then in what way will a vaccine allow travel? Go overseas, get infected but stay healthy, then go to the nearest Bunnings/Cafe/RSL club? Will these "infected" people not be any risk to the rest of the public?

Its working on the theory that once you get it, then its unlikely you will get it again. So once you get over the initial infection (without dying) , then you are all good. So when you go to bunnings, everyone else in there will have already had exposure to the virus, and won't get it again. The virus can't pass on to another host and will just die out. That's how how people who can't take the vaccine will be protected. Its not 100% fool proof, people still die from the flu.

Its going to take a long time before we get to that stage, which is why experts have been saying that restrictions won't be completely lifted in the early days of the vaccine. And again, this is why its critical to vaccinate the entire world equally. YOu don't want someone from an unvaccinated country going into bunnings, catching it from you for the first time, then passing it on to the vulnerable who can't be vaccinated.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by tweeked

Go overseas, get infected but stay healthy, then go to the nearest Bunnings/Cafe/RSL club? Will these "infected" people not be any risk to the rest of the public?

Presumably, travel will be re-opened when we've reached a threshold required for herd immunity. At which point, even unvaccinated people carrying the illness are of little concern.

[CoupeKing]

Age doesn't matter. A good immune system will laugh at this Virus.

[T3rminator]

Dumb question. If herd immunity through vaccination is achieved through people being infected but not falling seriously ill, then how are we going to achieve the herd immunity if there is no virus in the community?

Does that mean once vaccination is x% through, then we need to deliberately introduce the virus into the community and let it spread?

[Citroënbender]

The other burning question about Victoria’s situation, is what happened to Marty’s one-time girlfriend, Eve Black, after her high-profile arrest?

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Dumb question. If herd immunity through vaccination is achieved through people being infected but not falling seriously ill, then how are we going to achieve the herd immunity if there is no virus in the community?

Does that mean once vaccination is x% through, then we need to deliberately introduce the virus into the community and let it spread?

Perhaps by way of a booster? Like how some immunisations we take have a potency of x years before they need to be re done?

[EgoFG]

Originally Posted by tweeked

One thing I have not heard about the vaccine concept saving us. If the vaccine does not stop you being infected, but stops progression to disease, then in what way will a vaccine allow travel? Go overseas, get infected but stay healthy, then go to the nearest Bunnings/Cafe/RSL club? Will these "infected" people not be any risk to the rest of the public?

A couple of important concepts in here.

How likely is reinfection ? To date there has been 49 confirmed reinfections in 109,000,000 cases (a 1 in 2,000,000 chance ?)
(Updated Daily - https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/0...ction-tracker/)

How likely is asymptomatic transfer ? Between 1/6 and 1/30 as likely as symptomatic transfer. (https://fordforums.com.au/showpost.p...postcount=9261)
(Interestingly chance of getting it from someone in your home with symptoms is 28%, the chance of getting it from someone in your home without symptoms is 0.7%)

[PooDog]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Australia stops quarantine-free travel for New Zealand after COVID-19 cases

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-...vid19/13154240

Travel bubble shut to NZ after 3 cases. Seems drastic after all the hoohah about proportionate response? Or is the unknown patient zero concerning them?

Mate from UK recently moved his family to Auckland. After 2 days in quarantine in NZ, they were hit with news of the UK strain being detected. Now after a few days free from quarantine, they are back in lock down . Wanted to come to Aust for a visit but that's now off the table. Talk about bad timing.

FairmontGS - despite all the banter, here is hoping you make it back to gold standard state. Good luck.

It sounds like a circus down here , but apparently the UK is still in lockdown and have been since before xmas .....heard something on breakfast tv from a reporter in the UK .....Boris is only now thinking of setting up a quarantine system for people entering and exiting the country ???....like the system weve had down here since the start of it WTF

[PhilT2]

The mortality figures coming out of Russia have always been a bit suspect. The official number is around 60,000 but this paper suggests it could be closer to 500,000.

https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/...740-9713.01486

The author found the usual problems, claims of low death rates didn't fit with stories of overflowing hospitals and morgues. i think it would be naive to believe that the Russian govt was the only one fiddling the numbers.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by PooDog

It sounds like a circus down here , but apparently the UK is still in lockdown and have been since before xmas .....heard something on breakfast tv from a reporter in the UK .....Boris is only now thinking of setting up a quarantine system for people entering and exiting the country ???....like the system weve had down here since the start of it WTF

Yes that is correct. First hotel quarantine resident arrived yesterday Bojo mismanaged the outbreak, but he has done exceptionally well with the immunisation program. I hope we learn from it.

The other aspect is that their hotel quarantine is being managed centrally by Bojo, so lets see how that fairs.

Is the NZ hotel quarantine being managed by the central gov? So far you gotta say having NZ PM managing the crisis seems to have worked quite well. There seems to be a consistent message from right up the top. There is no nashing of teeth or biffs whenever you guys go into lock down.

[PooDog]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Yes that is correct. First hotel quarantine resident arrived yesterday Bojo mismanaged the outbreak, but he has done exceptionally well with the immunisation program. I hope we learn from it.

The other aspect is that their hotel quarantine is being managed centrally by Bojo, so lets see how that fairs.

Is the NZ hotel quarantine being managed by the central gov? So far you gotta say having NZ PM managing the crisis seems to have worked quite well. There seems to be a consistent message from right up the top. There is no nashing of teeth or biffs whenever you guys go into lock down.

Yeah Gov managing it , theyre sort of over reacting which personally i think is a good thing seam to be quite good at the tracing side of it , locking down tracing back to the source before it breaks loose.....probably been a bit lucky so far , we get the usual mistakes like you guys you just hope they learn from them ....everyones getting more upset about letting people come back into the country and importing the virus

Housing prices are going crazy because of all the people coming home and it being the only way investors can get any gain , even places where housing was cheap small towns etc are getting gobbled up and thats causing rents to rise .....if your a 1st home buyer or renter your up sh#t creek

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by mad2

don't hold ya breathe on the vaccine being 100% or any where near it. virus's can mutate quickly and do.

what is your quick fix for this situation then?

yes agree re your top sentence very much, and we all know the vaccine is a Fed run program might I add.

As for a quick fix you asking, I'm not qualified as some here for I don't spend much of my valuable time net surfing - hey shruggs shoulders like all of us, I could come up with a short term solution or 2 but some would take it the wrong way
Carry on all.