Covid 19 -

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by russellw

I've been supportive of the last two lockdowns but this one seem a little too far reaching (being whole of State) and severe at Stage 4. Counting today, Victoria has had 10 cases in the last 7 days - half the number that NSW has recorded although quite a few of the Victorian ones are community transmission.

Having said that, it is what it is and presumably if case numbers don't get worse it will end next Wednesday so it more a minor disruption than anything major.

Still, it begs the question: is this our future COVID Normal?

I agree it does seem an over reaction. The explanation as I understand it; the Sydney outbreak was standard Covid 19. The Sydney outbreak actually spread here (Black Rock outbreak) and we did not go into lock down.

The latest outbreak at Holiday Inn is the much more contagious "UK variant". The same variant that forced Adelaide and Perth to go into snap lock downs. So that being the case it begs the question, why have we waited this long to call a snap lock down?

Apparently contact tracing is proving difficult because when someone tests positive, their close contacts are already infectious. So we need a "circuit breaker" if the contact tracers have any chance of getting on top of this.

Interesting week coming up, and yes I believe this is Covid normal unfortunately.

[russellw]

The NSW mirroring of the lockdown for people in the State who entered from Victoria after 29/1 is also a bit harsh - the bride has been caught up in that but at least there is no need to rush leaving NSW as she already has a valid entry permit for Vic.

[Tickford.]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

We are flying into Melbourne Friday, back to the Gold Standard State Monday.

It's almost like Dan Andrews had seen all of your anti-Dan Andrews/VIC/Melbourne posts on here, knew that you were on your way to Melbourne, waited until you had boarded the flight, and then...... LOCKDOWN!!

[Mr_G6ET]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

It's almost like Dan Andrews had seen all of your anti-Dan Andrews/VIC/Melbourne posts on here, knew that you were on your way to Melbourne, waited until you had boarded the flight, and then...... LOCKDOWN!!

Jokes aside, imagine how many personal plans have changed, disruptive to say the least. I would have thought lockdowns should have been immediate if you want to stop unknown spreading.
Everyone flees the areas when lockdown is declared in eastern states making it a bit of a joke.

My thought is be prepared for this stuff going forward, as discussed in other posts, this is a highly probable situation.
Long life milk, freeze or bake your bread, auto delivery from Amazon, bidet for the toilet paper spastics.
Be prepared for it for now and (maybe) some years to come.
Its called preppers and for the snoozers

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by russellw

I've been supportive of the last two lockdowns but this one seem a little too far reaching (being whole of State) and severe at Stage 4. Counting today, Victoria has had 10 cases in the last 7 days - half the number that NSW has recorded although quite a few of the Victorian ones are community transmission.

Having said that, it is what it is and presumably if case numbers don't get worse it will end next Wednesday so it more a minor disruption than anything major.

Still, it begs the question: is this our future COVID Normal?

With the UK variant virus on the loose our government and health department are **** scared of it spreading and getting out of control; this is the reason why all of Victoria has gone into stage 4 lockdown and not just Melbourne.

[Mont5.0]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

It's almost like Dan Andrews had seen all of your anti-Dan Andrews/VIC/Melbourne posts on here, knew that you were on your way to Melbourne, waited until you had boarded the flight, and then...... LOCKDOWN!!

I wonder if the shoe was on the other foot, what Gladys would have done?

Oh wait, she didnt close the borders.

give it up tickford, once again you:

[Jack91]

Must be a weird feeling knowing a whole state hates you and thinks youre an idiot, and the rest of the country just thinks youre a *****.

[MITCHAY]

I was working from home today when it was announced. So I got onto the chat app at work an let my colleague know they were being locked down yet again.

She said I need vodka. I was was going to say stock up on the way home but replied she is already there because they cancelled return to work and already has a stash

I was talking to another colleague today and they were surprised I have been in the office for most of the time since Covid. I did a week from home and it sucked so I only did one or two days out of convenience the last couple of months.

I can't imagine how bad it would be doing it for months on end though it could be worse. Many workers have no option and this is what the cheer squad for lockdowns don't have a ****en clue about.

I've been back for two full weeks from holidays and was thinking traffic is a bit ****ed but have since found out the decline in public transport which explains the extra dickheads on the road. I'll take that over what everyone else has a million times over

[PHANTMXR6]

The next Jimmy Rees clip will be a ****a

[oldel]

Originally Posted by Work Horse

I agree it does seem an over reaction. The explanation as I understand it; the Sydney outbreak was standard Covid 19. The Sydney outbreak actually spread here (Black Rock outbreak) and we did not go into lock down.

The latest outbreak at Holiday Inn is the much more contagious "UK variant". The same variant that forced Adelaide and Perth to go into snap lock downs. So that being the case it begs the question, why have we waited this long to call a snap lock down?

Dan was probably afraid of another lock down (Politically speaking, and also the economy, mental health etc of vics). After he got over that he became afraid of being accused of "too little, too late" if it spread so quick.

So he went with a "little much, much later"

[marty351]

At least with knee-jerk reaction Dan isn't banning semi-automatic sneezes.

[MITCHAY]

To be fair to Dan, at least he isn't like that Mark McGowan flog locking down on what seems like a whim every chance he gets. A big state with **** all people there. If they didn't have a lot of **** to dig out of the ground they would be ****ed.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by russellw

I've been supportive of the last two lockdowns but this one seem a little too far reaching (being whole of State) and severe at Stage 4. Counting today, Victoria has had 10 cases in the last 7 days - half the number that NSW has recorded although quite a few of the Victorian ones are community transmission.

Having said that, it is what it is and presumably if case numbers don't get worse it will end next Wednesday so it more a minor disruption than anything major.

Still, it begs the question: is this our future COVID Normal?

Agree with everything said. Source of the 13 cases are all known, and so fars its just close contacts. Unless they know something more they aren't telling us.

Anyhow it's just 5 days, hopefully. Snap lockdown should have happened on day 1.

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

It's almost like Dan Andrews had seen all of your anti-Dan Andrews/VIC/Melbourne posts on here, knew that you were on your way to Melbourne, waited until you had boarded the flight, and then...... LOCKDOWN!!

Yes, the irony wasn't lost on me.

But to slightly correct you I have nothing against Melbourne/Victoria, just the bumbling fool Andrews and his corrupt and incompetent ALP Spring St cohort

Shifted the family bash to Friday night and now enjoying the weekend with Mum and Dad who I haven't seen since Dec 2019.

Originally Posted by Mont5.0

I wonder if the shoe was on the other foot, what Gladys would have done?

Oh wait, she didn't close the borders.

give it up tickford, once again you:

Aunty Glad doesn't need to shut borders because she has a properly funded, competent state health infrastructure that has so far dealt with what's been thrown at it.

The mood around the table had changed - there was a feeling that the populace have been spun a line regarding the reformed ability of Victoria Health's contact tracing and the anger directed at the Gold Standard State is more nuanced now - it was "how come NSW has made the same slip ups but always seems to recover and get away from it and we Victorians don't?"

As my dear old ALP-to-the-day-he-dies Dad said this morning after throwing The Age down in disgust... "Someone thought flashing coloured traffic lights north was a substitute for actually doing their jobs"

[cheap]

Let me get this straight, these lockdowns in NSW, Qld, SA and Vic are because there is

A bunch of people with UK C19
Zero people in ICU
Zero people dead

Either Australian GovCo Health has become the galactic super health system or we keep on dodging bullets or UK C19 ain’t as bad as the claim?

[T3rminator]

Here, I corrected it for you...

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Aunty Glad doesn't need to shut borders because she has a properly funded, competent state health infrastructure that has so far dealt with what's been thrown at it other states do the responsible thing and restrict their residents movement during an outbreak, thereby protecting the rest of Australia.

Maybe this is Dan's master plan to get Victorians first access to the vaccine

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT February 12th, 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

10 new cases for Australia and no deaths so the CMR is 3.147%.

2 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.075% and active cases 44.

The UK had 15,144 cases yesterday and 758 deaths.

Just over 107.5k new cases in the USA yesterday and a new record high of 5,759 deaths sees CMR up to 1.748%. That ends the run of days under 100k cases. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
The USA passes 28M cases;
The UK passes 4M cases;
Europe passes 32M cases;

No countries (for the second consecutive day)

... recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Agree with everything said. Source of the 13 cases are all known, and so fars its just close contacts. Unless they know something more they aren't telling us.

Anyhow it's just 5 days, hopefully. Snap lockdown should have happened on day 1.

The problem with the UK virus it spreads and infects more quickly which is a bit of a worry for the contact tracing teams who are not able to keep pace with this quick spreading virus, this is a big game changer for the health authorities which explains why most of the states borders have shut and we are in an lock down state wide.

Don't be surprised if the 5 day lock down extends and see what cross border infections that could emerge.

This is a quote that should not be underestimated and where did these people travel to.

Victorian authorities estimate up to 5,000 people moved through an airport terminal listed as a key coronavirus exposure site

[FTE217]

Dan and master plans don’t compute nor do any of his people recall plans in the past.
Your right though good thought, Vic more so need to get the vaccines pronto - after all the people have had enough - small business’s going broke the mental strains and all he should go hell for leather for vaccines I agree - it might just get egg off his face for a change.

[mad2]

Originally Posted by FTE217

Dan and master plans don’t compute nor do any of his people recall plans in the past.
Your right though good thought, Vic more so need to get the vaccines pronto - after all the people have had enough - small business’s going broke the mental strains and all he should go hell for leather for vaccines I agree - it might just get egg off his face for a change.

don't hold ya breathe on the vaccine being 100% or any where near it. virus's can mutate quickly and do.

what is your quick fix for this situation then?

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by FTE217

... he should go hell for leather for vaccines I agree - it might just get egg off his face for a change.

Vaccine not his call. We are at the mercy of the Feds, and given the amount of pork barrelling going on in Lib jurisdictions and Mr Hunt marketing the vaccine roll out with the Lib logo, I'm not hopeful

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Officemanager

The problem with the UK virus it spreads and infects more quickly which is a bit of a worry for the contact tracing teams who are not able to keep pace with this quick spreading virus, this is a big game changer for the health authorities which explains why most of the states borders have shut and we are in an lock down state wide.

Don't be surprised if the 5 day lock down extends and see what cross border infections that could emerge.

This is a quote that should not be underestimated and where did these people travel to.

I don't doubt the scientists, but something is very odd. Both QLD and WA had carriers running around in public with the UK variant for 3-5 days, but it didn't transmit to anyone other than their close partners. All the co-workers of the airport cafe case has returned negative.

I wonder what the KPI will be to lift restrictions after day 5. How many additional cases would be "acceptable"?

Originally Posted by T3rminator

I don't doubt the scientists, but something is very odd. Both QLD and WA had carriers running around in public with the UK variant for 3-5 days, but it didn't transmit to anyone other than their close partners. All the co-workers of the airport cafe case has returned negative.

It's probably not fair to say that they didn't transmit the virus to anyone other than their close partners. If 100% of the population was tested and all came back negative, sure, we could probably then say they didn't transmit the virus. But not everyone is getting tested when they're showing symptoms and not everyone will even show symptoms so will feel they don't need to be tested.

Wastewater testing has confirmed the presence of the virus in multiple places at multiple times across Brisbane. It *is* in the community. Infected people just aren't getting tested.

[russellw]

From a global perspective, the fact that only a couple of countries have recorded new case 'highs' this last week is, at first glance, a good sign but that isn't really reflected in the growth rate where another 1M cases are being added every 2-3 days.

Drilling down on the data a bit further:

Of the 20 North & South American countries I watch in detail, 10 of them recorded daily case numbers above their 90th percentile within the last 10 days; Africa it is 9 of 21; Europe is 14 of 35 and in Asia it's 8 of 33.

I think those countries, which aren't really making inroads, along with some countries like Jamaica and the Seychelles which are starting to see case growth after a long period with almost none are helping to keep the overall global numbers up.

Case in point. Israel (not as bad as some) has a 90th percentile of 5,998 which it surpassed 3 of the last 10 days but at least their 10-day average is below that figure with 5,877. Or the UAE with a 90th percentile of 2,868 which it surpassed 9 of the last 10 days and their 10-day average is above that figure with 3,332.

Conversely, you have countries like Turkey where the 90th percentile is 14,483 which it hasn't surpassed since January 3rd and the 10-day average is about half that figure at 7,295. Even the USA, hardly a poster child for managing a pandemic, has a 90th percentile of 200,763 which they hasven't surpassed since the 15th January and the 10-day average is well below that figure at 106,094.

[russellw]

I'm also going to recant what I said yesterday about the 5 day lockdown being an overreaction because having done some more reading I'm now of the view that it should be more like 14 days if it wants to achieve the stated end result.

The day will come, I predict, when we'll long for the days when we only had a handful of cases per day.

[wodahs]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Here, I corrected it for you...



Maybe this is Dan's master plan to get Victorians first access to the vaccine

and i half expected your reply to state
she has a properly funded, competent state health infrastructure by crown casinos gold standard

[marty351]

I didn't vote Labor, so I'm up for the jab first....

[T3rminator]

Watching the Emma Cassar presser, I think there is one thing Vic should have learnt from NSW, and that is don't provide too much details. The witch hunt on the nebuliser is cringe worthy. Of course the bloke using the nebuliser feels victimised. Reporters asking why authorities didn't check his bag upon entry into the hotel, asked what if he was carrying weapon , and now asking if the gov will make his health record available public WTF!?! Is this what our standard of "journalism" has come to.

They should have just said "patient zero is none of your business, look somewhere else" aka northern beaches.

Originally Posted by russellw

I'm also going to recant what I said yesterday about the 5 day lockdown being an overreaction because having done some more reading I'm now of the view that it should be more like 14 days if it wants to achieve the stated end result.

The day will come, I predict, when we'll long for the days when we only had a handful of cases per day.

I think 5 is to buy some time to let your contact tracers catch up. Its not an elimination strategy. Some reports that they need to contact trace over 1000 people.

Originally Posted by marty351

I didn't vote Labor, so I'm up for the jab first....

haha. Actually my LGA is a Lib seat, so I might be getting one. You are in Bill Shorten's seat....no chance!

[FairmontGS]

Victoria's hotel quarantine program left out of key taskforce on infection control for frontline workers

Experts are "gobsmacked" to learn the hotel quarantine program was left out of Victoria's key taskforce on infection control for frontline health workers and the policies were not applied to the embattled system.

The Australian Medical Association (AMA) has declared Victoria "cannot be trusted" to manage hotel quarantine until it is fully restructured after Victoria was this week forced into a third lockdown due to a cluster at the Holiday Inn hotel quarantine site at Melbourne Airport.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-...force/13152242

[FairmontGS]

oopsy... Things are starting to look shaky when the official party organ (The Age) abandons ship

Victorian hotel quarantine chief Emma Cassar stands by statement her team was not told about nebuliser

The state's health authorities have maintained that the nebuliser, a medical device which vaporises medicine, was used by a quarantine hotel guest without the knowledge of the quarantine system's managers.

However, the man, who has remained anonymous, reportedly told The Age from his bed in hospital that he had been given permission on two occasions to use the device.

She said the incident was "not anyone's fault".

"No one did this deliberately, no one did this maliciously," she said.

"This was an incident that no-one knew about until after it occurred.

Ummm... now where have I heard this before

Victorian Quarantine Enquiry final report: No-one to blame

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-...eased/13002882