Australia housing bubble

[mad2]

Originally Posted by naddis01

According to their website the cost is similar to traditional brick veneer but provides better thermal properties. One of the main advantages they seem to push is the time. Lock up within ten days.

not with the one i know of! ... crap thermal properties


as too lockup .. yep

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Surely it would be cheaper than your typical normal house? Comes in on a truck, gets put up with a crane, .

That's how my little house arrived, but built to lock up in a factory.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

That's how my little house arrived, but built to lock up in a factory.

Modular/prefab home, have also been investigating these options.

I'm open to thinking outside the box.

[guzzis3]

Depends on what you are after. There are 2 aspects to thermodynamics in a house. The first is resistance to heat flow through walls, the second is heat retention.

Heavy masonry walls whether brick or concrete soak up heat in the day and release it at night. You might think that's desirable but I will never forget my parents getting insulation in their brick veneer house in the 80's. They'd built it a few years earlier and it was pretty livable but after the insulation it stayed freezing cold in winter till about 11 am and stayed stinking hot in summer half the night. Made getting up hard and getting to sleep impossible. It acts like a battery (or capacitor) slowing the ingress of heat not reducing it.

If you use non massive lagging like a light cladding and material with low thermal conductivity it slows heat ingress (or loss for you southerners) but doesn't store it so if you want to change the temperature you can do that easily. In snow dwellers terms it means you can heat a room faster because you are heating the air not the wall structure.

Brick veneer looks expensive so people prefer it. It can be cheaper than most alternatives. I don't hate it, but if you are concerned with economics rather than aesthetics colourbond over pine with batts and gyprock is your friend. I personally prefer glass batts as they are fire resistant. Some might point out the material for say fibro sheet or weatherboards is cheaper but they aren't factoring in painting.

If you buy me flowers and dinner I'll let you see my spreadsheet.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by guzzis3

If you buy me flowers and dinner I'll let you see my spreadsheet.

Is that what the kids are calling it these days...

[Sprintey]

Myob

[MercuryT]

If will be interesting.

I still predict a drop in prices.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by MercuryT

If will be interesting.



I still predict a drop in prices.

I got a small 1br unit in western Sydney.

December last year it was vacant. Tossed up selling. Value was only around $240k, 2 br places were around $280-300k.

Found someone after 2 months at $10 less a week.

Had a look last night. Only 1br is $330k (renovated) and a bunch of 2br places between $320-360k.

Earlier this year a 2br place went for $26X.

The lower end looks strong.

Top end looks stable.

Middle ground seems to be where a drop will be if at all.

Sent from my LG-M700 using Tapatalk

[zilo]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

I got a small 1br unit in western Sydney.

December last year it was vacant. Tossed up selling. Value was only around $240k, 2 br places were around $280-300k.

Found someone after 2 months at $10 less a week.

Had a look last night. Only 1br is $330k (renovated) and a bunch of 2br places between $320-360k.

Earlier this year a 2br place went for $26X.

The lower end looks strong.

Top end looks stable.

Middle ground seems to be where a drop will be if at all.

Sent from my LG-M700 using Tapatalk

Yeah...the commentators are saying prices are holding...for now...because everyone is scared and there are very few on the market selling....when jobkeeper runs out will be the litmus test apparently.

Keep filling that bag of popcorn and let's wait and see.

Anybody know of anyone unemployed with a mortgage at the ,moment is the question?

[guzzis3]

It occurs to me some of you might not be aware of the formula.

People buy emotionally, usually it's the female making the decision. They "fall in love" with a house. Banks don't, and since most people need finance the bank appointed valuer stops a lot of people paying over the odds.

So start with the land. Land makes money, houses cost money.

The valuer knows what the average block in the area is worth and then corrects for views (+20-30%), HV powerlines, Toxic waste dumps, busy roads. Slope is easy just calculate the extra building costs and deduct a bit more for loss of amenity. BAL40/flamezone cost about $70k last I looked probably more now. Flood prone, eco BS. You gotta check all that out. you can get recent sold prices off realestate.com.au etc. Pay no attention to asking prices. Lots of optimists.

Now the house. 1 bed is about $100k. Add $50k for every bedroom except the 4th which adds $70k. Everyone wants 4 bed 2 bath. Fibro deduct about $60k, weatherboards probably minus $15-20k. Architect houses get more. No idea why. Those AH's make everything twice as expensive and half as useful, but idiots think they are good. You also have to assess condition.

Add it up and you know what the place is probably worth. If you are really keen on a house call your bank and ask which valuer they use. Get them to do a valuation. I guess they might be $500 or something now but if you buy that house the bank will want a valuation anyway, so no money wasted if you use their firm. If you decide not to buy you've done your money but it might save you a bomb of money. If you tell The valuer who you plan to borrow through they will probably talk to you pre charges and give you some clues. Valuers are really worth talking to even if you pay for their time.

2c.

[blueoval]

The Darlington spaghetti concrete farce thats still under construction I believe wont be fully complete for another 12 months. Glacial speed is the only way these road works move. It's actually a joke if you ask me. But that's another topic.

[MITCHAY]

Well another house has sold for $535k in my complex this week. I think all but one of these have had original fittings for the kitchen and bathrooms, like mine.

If I was going to put it up today I would ask for $550k. Bigger house which is extended off the plan and is open and I'm pretty sure the biggest backyard.

I bought for $430k, put in about $17k for paint, carpet, and custom blinds and curtains.

I believe I had almost zero competition for it based on my experience and I couldn't believe my luck

[Franco Cozzo]

South Australians - Two Wells?

[pottery beige]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

South Australians - Two Wells?

paddocks

ride on / sheep / ride on

can rock big sheds

[MITCHAY]

Anyone else getting spammed by real estate agencies recently even after 'unsubscribing' a loooong time ago?

You're unsubscribed until the market goes to **** and now you are reactivated again.

I remember I couldn't reset my PW for my Allhomes account a few years back and got no response from my support request, but yet I'm still on their mailing list

[zilo]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

Anyone else getting spammed by real estate agencies recently even after 'unsubscribing' a loooong time ago?

Yep!

(....thought it was just me )

But am also getting emails out of the blue on quotes for all sorts of stuff from as far back as two years ago....like fibre reinforce plastic sheets that I asked for quotes on in 2018....

Pretty hilarious really....but makes you think something is "brewing"

[b0son]

Originally Posted by zilo

makes you think something is "brewing"

I just read that something like 500,000 people emptied their superannuation accounts since the government let them. Wait til September hits and Jobkeeper winds up. It's the section of the market that's predominantly populated by renters. New housing approvals are their lowest in 7 years, give that a few more months and we're going to start seeing builders going belly up en masse. No amount of building stimulus is going to put a renter in a house if they have no job....

[zilo]

This is an interesting story on just what is in store for the property experts...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_dAMAwne9U

[Sprintey]

Was working all around Adelaide metro and SA country in the 2000s
Quite liked it. To the south you could be up in the hills and farms (great driving roads) within about 20mins from the CBD. Got stuck in traffic on the South Rd many times... Going north, worked all through it up past Elizabeth and into the Wine regions (Clare valley is pretty too). As far as I can see, there's a heap of defence work going on in SA. If going north Franco, take the Lebonator!

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

Was working all around Adelaide metro and SA country in the 2000s
Quite liked it. To the south you could be up in the hills and farms (great driving roads) within about 20mins from the CBD. Got stuck in traffic on the South Rd many times... Going north, worked all through it up past Elizabeth and into the Wine regions (Clare valley is pretty too). As far as I can see, there's a heap of defence work going on in SA. If going north Franco, take the Lebonator!

It's very fitting that I'll fit in like a glove with it in Adelaide's northern suburbs just as well as Melbourne's

It'll be staying registered in VIC though I think, rego is about $200 cheaper if it stays as a VIC car.

I think next time I'm in SA I'm going to be doing a bit of driving around and scoping out some suburbs and regions.

I like the hills as it reminds me of here but I'm not that fond of bushfires.

Originally Posted by pottery beige

paddocks

ride on / sheep / ride on

can rock big sheds

Seems to be about the same price as Northern suburbs Adelaide even though it's regional - is there something special about it?

Does SA get regional rego discounts like we do in VIC?

Is there an advantage to living on the regional outskirts out of the Adelaide metropolitan area compared to living within?

I already know the downside of living in Melbourne's rural fringe

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

It'll be staying registered in VIC though I think, rego is about $200 cheaper if it stays as a VIC car.

Does SA get regional rego discounts like we do in VIC?

Franco, got my Vicroads rego papers yesterday for the MH and its $10 cheaper than last year.

[blueoval]

Originally Posted by zilo

This is an interesting story on just what is in store for the property experts...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_dAMAwne9U

This video is confirming my suspicions Ive had at the beginning of the pandemic.

I was going to build a new home this year, now I think its a mistake even with the 25k building grant. The sale of my existing home will take a massive hit when it comes time to sell. So the grant barely creates a dent in the loss.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by blueoval

I was going to build a new home this year, now I think its a mistake even with the 25k building grant. The sale of my existing home will take a massive hit when it comes time to sell. So the grant barely creates a dent in the loss.

Same. Rental yields before covid-19 were crap in Sydney at 3%. By the time land had registered and construction finished, we'd have been looking at Sept-Nov before we could have had a tenant in. No way we'd have been getting anything like 3% in all likelihood, and why wear such a crap return while the property isnt appreciating, and probably wont for minimum 1-2 years? I'd rather park my deposit in a term deposit for the next 1-2 years and look again once borders start reopening and the population starts growing again. The amount of empty properties in Sydney right now is pretty staggering.

[MercuryT]

Pottery Biege.

Sheep riding no doubt.

Also his wife.

[78xcgxl]

Great Video. I like the comment someone wrote.

"First mistake, a home is not an investment, it is a basic necessity. Let’s hope this crisis scares people enough to learn this. I’m going to be controversial and say I have no pity for these people. Had we had no crisis these are the type of people that would gloat at barbecues at how property is working so well for them as an investment, meanwhile entire families are being locked out from owning their own home and paying rent. Sorry pal, you made a bet and lost, move on. Plenty more coming that’s for sure."

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by 78xcgxl

Great Video. I like the comment someone wrote.

"First mistake, a home is not an investment, it is a basic necessity. Let’s hope this crisis scares people enough to learn this. I’m going to be controversial and say I have no pity for these people. Had we had no crisis these are the type of people that would gloat at barbecues at how property is working so well for them as an investment, meanwhile entire families are being locked out from owning their own home and paying rent. Sorry pal, you made a bet and lost, move on. Plenty more coming that’s for sure."

This quote sums up Australia's issues for me, housing has been used as a get rich quick scheme and while I appreciate its an investment opportunity like everything else the issue with that is its a basic necessity that many are now struggling with.

Its the soul and essence of a solid family and we have f'd with it.

Imagine if all those investors sunk their money into shares, business idea's etc..as a country we would be further advanced.

But its ok, middle class people with no cash flow have 3 housing being negatively geared...

[blueoval]

Originally Posted by Polyal

This quote sums up Australia's issues for me, housing has been used as a get rich quick scheme and while I appreciate its an investment opportunity like everything else the issue with that is its a basic necessity that many are now struggling with.

Its the soul and essence of a solid family and we have f'd with it.

Imagine if all those investors sunk their money into shares, business idea's etc..as a country we would be further advanced.

But its ok, middle class people with no cash flow have 3 housing being negatively geared...

I hear what you're saying. For the record I have an investment property, but made it an investment property as a part of my SMSF. So not in it to negatively gear, but in it to secure my retirement when the time comes. I found having Super in shares and other areas was too risky and I wanted my hard earned to go into something a little more stable.

[MITCHAY]

Originally Posted by Polyal

This quote sums up Australia's issues for me, housing has been used as a get rich quick scheme and while I appreciate its an investment opportunity like everything else the issue with that is its a basic necessity that many are now struggling with.

Its the soul and essence of a solid family and we have f'd with it.

Imagine if all those investors sunk their money into shares, business idea's etc..as a country we would be further advanced.

But its ok, middle class people with no cash flow have 3 housing being negatively geared...

I often have this discussion at work and I'm not looking to buy an investment property ever and people think I'm nuts.

I'm just not interested in bricks and mortar unless it is a home. I'm lucky that I have been able to buy my own.

As far as I'm concerned I think any perk should only apply if it increases supply, not simply trading hands. With the perk should come risk also.

That's just what I think. I don't judge those who simply play the game. I don't hate the player.

Originally Posted by zilo

Some great news today, banks are extending the mortgage holiday for another 4 months....

It's a win, win, win, win (that's four wins for 4 banks)


So...what was a 30 year mortgage has already become a 35 year...

add another 4 months holiday and it becomes.....


A FORTY year mortgage....

wow...just wow...

Not great but what is the alternative mate? About as altruistic as banks are likely to get.

A bunch of people foreclosing ain't going to do them any good either.

[John 13]

Originally Posted by 78xcgxl

Great Video. I like the comment someone wrote.

"First mistake, a home is not an investment, it is a basic necessity. Let’s hope this crisis scares people enough to learn this. I’m going to be controversial and say I have no pity for these people. Had we had no crisis these are the type of people that would gloat at barbecues at how property is working so well for them as an investment, meanwhile entire families are being locked out from owning their own home and paying rent. Sorry pal, you made a bet and lost, move on. Plenty more coming that’s for sure."

Some of us who been through the property investment cycle have been fortunate, that was years ago. It's getting more complex now a significant part of the investment money is not part of the Australian economy and so the link between domestic housing pricing and the local economy, particularly in capital cities, rarely applies. The latest calamity has spawned another of John Howard's "Housing led recovery" responses.
The outcome will likely play out over the decade provided our world drops back onto it's axis !

[Mulva]

@Franco...Two Wells, Angle Vale, Virginia etc offer much bigger blocks compared to the Northern Suburbs that they are only a few minutes away from. Although they are in Adelaide's rural fringes they are on 'The Plains' and therefore much easier to defend against bushfire compared to 'The Hills' (Mt Lofty Ranges).

They aren't that much further up the road from Adelaide's outer suburbs, not much further in KM's nor time as you are travelling at open road speeds, and the Northern Connector has made those towns and outer northern suburbs much closer timewise than what they were last year.

Last year my sister picked up a 5 bedroom 3 bathroom house built in 2008 on 1900+ square metre block within township of Angle Vale for $435k. 2 large living areas, separate meals area and dining room, double garage under main roof is 7.5m wide by 8.5m deep, large shed with 3-phase power, ensuite has spa and is bigger than the second bedroom in my house. Was advertised for $490k but they got price down a bit as it was not presented very well and needed bit of clean-up/tidy-up. At open listings the dining room had a pulled-down Harley in it, and it was filthy...needed paint throughout and carpets replaced, and yards were completely over-grown. Was only 11 years old and structually sound, just needed few $k on carpets, paint and landscaping.