Australia housing bubble

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by MercuryT

Or don't even apply in the first place.



Depends on location but down my way plenty wing it and even if caught no action is taken.



(I'm not suggesting this as a good idea btw)

Apparently there is a rule of 6 or 7 years that if you do something without permission and it is there that long without council noticing it is allowed to remain?

Not sure if that's just a local council thing or broader?

Best to be on good terms with your neighbours.

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[MercuryT]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

Apparently there is a rule of 6 or 7 years that if you do something without permission and it is there that long without council noticing it is allowed to remain?

Not sure if that's just a local council thing or broader?

Best to be on good terms with your neighbours.

Sent from my LG-M700 using Tapatalk

I don't know mate but I suspect it would be a Council by Council decision.

I've known people who never get found out and sell etc no issues, others get found out and just forced to do the application and fees as they should have, and also some fined etc

Best do the right thing of course but it's certainly a grey area imo.

[Mulva]

Given this is for owner/occupiers only, if you use the grant to do extensive renno's, how long do you then have to live in it before you can sell or move out to rent it?

I just can't see many that will get this grant for renno's...it's basically a New/Build Home grant.

[Citroënbender]

How long do you have to pretend, you mean?

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by Mulva

Given this is for owner/occupiers only, if you use the grant to do extensive renno's, how long do you then have to live in it before you can sell or move out to rent it?

Good question actually.

Wouldn't mind knowing that.

Quite easy to get around the renting problem, lots of people are a bit creative with the paperwork if it saves them $$.

Having said that the government still wins at sale time due to stamp duty.

Or is that also on hold? So hard to keep up!

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[MercuryT]

Settlement on my house (fingers crossed) goes through tomorrow.

Excited about the future.

[FPV8U]

Originally Posted by MercuryT

Settlement on my house (fingers crossed) goes through tomorrow.

Excited about the future.

Congratulations!

We are in the process of our first new home build, this Homebuilder package couldn’t have fallen at a better time for us having just received our final costings prior to contract.

I think they have set the number a bit high on the renovation side to make sense, especially in rural areas,, but there no doubting that it will be a massive help for us, might even give us the nudge to start a little earlier than our previously planned September.

[MercuryT]

Originally Posted by FPV8U

Congratulations!

We are in the process of our first new home build, this Homebuilder package couldn’t have fallen at a better time for us having just received our final costings prior to contract.

I think they have set the number a bit high on the renovation side to make sense, especially in rural areas,, but there no doubting that it will be a massive help for us, might even give us the nudge to start a little earlier than our previously planned September.

Cheers. I'm selling so it's not as exciting as yours but for me a fresh start and much needed reset (moving back to parents) - then buy again hopefully.

Yes that's awesome timing for you! Bet can't happen quick enough! I might consider building down the track too.

With regard to renovation package yeah I don't know enough to know if too much like most are saying but it's better than nothing that's for sure for the industry.....

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by MercuryT

Settlement on my house (fingers crossed) goes through tomorrow.

Excited about the future.

Did you get the dodgy pipe sorted??

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[MercuryT]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

Did you get the dodgy pipe sorted??

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I actually was about to go to that thread. Plumber said not worth repairing so cut and shut it (I think you suggested that!)

Maybe i could have done it but i have the paperwork so buyer can't complain when I've paid for it (no tap anymore)

[Franco Cozzo]

Whats it cost to build a basic house, I'm not sure if buy 30 year old home or build the Kia Picanto of homes at the cheapest price point

There's land sub $120K in Heathcote here in Vic, its a bit of a drive to Melbourne but its doable - does $200K build the Kia Picanto of houses these days? Just needs NBN, a split system A/C and I'll happily have polished concrete floors, a parts wash bin for a sink, chuck a BBQ in the middle of the kitchen which will do the job and we can put a garage door on the front bedroom and park a car in the house because the actual garage will be the wog pantry

[guzzis3]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Whats it cost to build a basic house, I'm not sure if buy 30 year old home or build the Kia Picanto of homes at the cheapest price point

You get what you pay for. Cheaper project homes start falling apart pretty much immediately. Building regulation is different in each state and I'm no expert on victoria but it's pretty much useless in Qld and NSW. I know a bloke who built a dixon home. Within 18 months the bricks started cracking really badly. Not covered. Brick veneer is cladding not structural. I know a girl who built a spec home, the photos from the build were breathtaking. You wouldn't think any human could make the mistakes they did. She didn't take Elizabeth's advice and hire a professional inspector, so she signed off on it. The gaps under all the internal doors were about 4". There are a few that focus on quality rather than fruit but they are few.

I've had a chance to look at the emerging details of the grant. I'm thinking the master builders donated to the coalition election campaign and now it's payback time. No owner builders. Short time frame for approvals. I bet 90% of it will go to dodgy project home builders, they have structured it to exclude everyone else.

[guzzis3]

Originally Posted by GXA

When my parents bought in 1955, my grandfather said to my father "why are you buying now, they're gunna come down". Guess wot.....

I lived through the '90s recession. Prices might have flattened-off for a few years, but there was no dramatic drop.

The moral of the story is don't hang your hat on a magic 30% price plunge. It's not gunna happen....

Actually that's not true. Unfortunately I haven't seen the raw data only calculations from it, but in the 1990 recession prices fell something like 14% averaged across Australia. Our biggest property crash was in the late 1890's and was centered on Melbourne. From memory it was 40% but I can't quite remember.

Unfortunately people don't deal well with long term trends, anything much over 12 months and the disbelief or just plain deafness increases exponentially.

If you look at the western world vs Australia long term we have been going through an anomalous period since at least 1970 but probably longer. We had 3 generations who were obsessed with home ownership and then property investment. More recently the highest rates of immigration in the OECD have been used to mask our declining productivity. But those property obsessed pre war, boomers and yes even my lot are getting old and dropping off the twig. Look overseas and you will see what our future holds. Return to trend and re balancing of property value income multiples.

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

I like the idea of these precast concrete panel homes - my workshop went up in like a week from being a slab to being fully assembled when we started my business.

The shell isn't the problem. The bulk of cost in a house, apart from wifey's $1000 tap she just had to have, is in the internal fitout. A shed costs about $130 sqm all steel on concrete. A hardwood, cypress or pressure treated pine frame with colourbond cladding on a concrete base isn't MUCH dearer. It's mostly in the plumbing getting laid in the slab. Steel starts at about $15 sqm plus fitting brick veneer starts about $120 laid. Neither include the frame.

I looked into precast and tilt up concrete when I was thinking of buying a cliff face at Lake Macquarie. The view was unbelievable but thee block had "challenges".

If you are looking to build a cheap house: slab, possibly waffle slab if your soil and geotek is challenging, treated pine frame, trusses, steel cladding, glass insulation, sliding aluminium windows (or doors), cheap kitchen and plumbing fixtures, no $1000 fancy lighting fixtures, cheap carpets. You can build that for under $1000 sqm and do it so it lasts. Rectangle, hip roof or single pitch, even belcon but remember verandahs cost. Build a seperate steel shed at $130 sqm rather than an included garage at $1000sqm.

Project home builders don't offer that because women make the decisions and they rarely understand that if you dump the fancy cornice and roof tiles you can get another bedroom for the same money...

[naddis01]

So what happens with the grant if you have a change of circumstance and don't move into the house? I assume you either don't receive it or you would have to pay it back?

[Captain Stubing]

This thread is about the high cost of housing. Please keep the various genres out of it, they're irrelevant. Keep your personal attacks to PM's.

[PG2]

Originally Posted by Captain Stubing

This thread is about the high cost of housing. Please keep the various genres out of it, they're irrelevant. Keep your personal attacks to PM's.

I'll add that any further off-topic posts will be deleted. I won't close the thread because of the behaviour of a few so bans may be handed out if anyone wants to continue.

[MercuryT]

I think housing prices will fall.

% depending on where. I can't see an increase.

That's why I sold as I can't imagine my house being worth more in 12 months time than now.

I may be proven wrong.

[zilo]

Originally Posted by MercuryT

I think housing prices will fall.

% depending on where. I can't see an increase.

That's why I sold as I can't imagine my house being worth more in 12 months time than now.

I may be proven wrong.

You will be proven right....but it might take slightly longer 24-36 months.
that is what the consensus is amongst some circles.

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by MercuryT

I think housing prices will fall.

% depending on where. I can't see an increase.

That's why I sold as I can't imagine my house being worth more in 12 months time than now.

I may be proven wrong.

I think you are on the money and right to sell when you did.

Our housing market and by extension (no pun intended), the Australian economy was supported (propped up) by immigration.

Immigration is over for the foreseeable future because of closed boarders due to Covid 19.

No amount of government stimulus can replace the demand for housing created by an increasing population.

It shows what a ponzi scheme it was to relying on ever increasing house values to keep the economy a float.

It would be great to have visionary leaders that took the chance now to create a more diverse economy. We could manufacture great stuff the world wanted!

Unfortunately I believe our elected representatives will wait until international Covid restrictions ease. Then we can increase immigration to levels that will drive demand in housing to drive prices up again. And we can sell what we dig out of the ground to try and get back to where we were.

In the mean time, house prices are going to take a hit.

IMHO

[MercuryT]

Settlement done as hoped and money already in account.

Very relieved and happy as!

[GXA]

When my parents bought in 1955, my grandfather said to my father "why are you buying now, they're gunna come down". Guess wot.....

I lived through the '90s recession. Prices might have flattened-off for a few years, but there was no dramatic drop.

The moral of the story is don't hang your hat on a magic 30% price plunge. It's not gunna happen....

[MercuryT]

There may not be any big drop, but prices definitely won't increase.

Only one way it can go it just depends on how much imho.

[GXA]

My dear old dad used to say....

"You can wish in one hand, and p155 in the other. Guess which one's gunna fill up first..."

[Franco Cozzo]

I like the idea of these precast concrete panel homes - my workshop went up in like a week from being a slab to being fully assembled when we started my business.



Surely that would have good insulation and sound deadening properties and its tough as god damn nails cause the whole thing aside from the roof is concrete.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

I like the idea of these precast concrete panel homes - my workshop went up in like a week from being a slab to being fully assembled when we started my business.



Surely that would have good insulation and sound deadening properties and its tough as god damn nails cause the whole thing aside from the roof is concrete.

Franco, I built a chimney for a guy who built one of these, the panel construction looked pretty good. After all, the way it is going there ain't going to be to many brickie left and wooden houses are few and far in fire regions.

The older guys I know up here are getting out of building spec homes.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

Franco, I built a chimney for a guy who built one of these, the panel construction looked pretty good. After all, the way it is going there ain't going to be to many brickie left and wooden houses are few and far in fire regions.

The older guys I know up here are getting out of building spec homes.

They are 3D printing houses with cement.

Minimal waste, no smoko, no inconsistent laying, no 'mis-understanding' of the plans to cut a corners, the ability to do unique designs that would be hard with bricks.

Neighbour did is place in Hebel. Not sold on it - too industrial, large slabs of the stuff with think expansion joints.

Too brittle, would hate to bang a wheel barrow or a trailer into it by accident.

[Franco Cozzo]

Surely it would be cheaper than your typical normal house? Comes in on a truck, gets put up with a crane, a couple of people bolt the outside of it together, then it's business as usual on the inside.

I imagine adding services later would be a bit difficult though.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Surely it would be cheaper than your typical normal house? Comes in on a truck, gets put up with a crane, a couple of people bolt the outside of it together, then it's business as usual on the inside.

I imagine adding services later would be a bit difficult though.

It should be cheaper - much the same as any modern or new building method should be cheaper.

How much cheaper? Those pre-cast panels will weigh a motza - transportation costs, permits for the crane as well as the daily cost and the inflexibility / restrictions of the design once set will offset any perceived savings.

Service conduits are probably planned ahead and cast into the mould. Good luck if you get it wrong.

It would have to be planned spot on with no scope for modifications.

Geeze, when I built my place I diverted from the plans probably 50 times. Easy when you are project manager and organising the trades yourself and you explain what the changes are and ensure it's done.

We just have too much red tape and bureaucracy.

You watch in the states how they can pick up and shift a 3 story brick house on the back of a truck - can you ever imagine entertaining that thought here?

[mad2]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Surely it would be cheaper than your typical normal house? Comes in on a truck, gets put up with a crane, a couple of people bolt the outside of it together, then it's business as usual on the inside.

I imagine adding services later would be a bit difficult though.

i doubt it would be much cheaper for a single house ..... if your doing multiples then yes/maybe if all same/same. and doubt a concrete framed house will be cheaper to heat/cool than a 'normal' wood framed house [dunno re metal framed] as i have noticed differances between the two.

also as was mentioned earlier ..... if you want to change internal walls etc .... your limited as per conduit/plumbing being preplanned in walls [as in older housing commission homes] so once it's up.......

as to a house price drop...? .... i don't know as i don't have a crystal ball to see with

[naddis01]

Originally Posted by mad2

i doubt it would be much cheaper for a single house ..... if your doing multiples then yes/maybe if all same/same. and doubt a concrete framed house will be cheaper to heat/cool than a 'normal' wood framed house [dunno re metal framed] as i have noticed differances between the two.

also as was mentioned earlier ..... if you want to change internal walls etc .... your limited as per conduit/plumbing being preplanned in walls [as in older housing commission homes] so once it's up.......

as to a house price drop...? .... i don't know as i don't have a crystal ball to see with

According to their website the cost is similar to traditional brick veneer but provides better thermal properties. One of the main advantages they seem to push is the time. Lock up within ten days.