Australia housing bubble

[buggerlugs]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-...mbers/11512002

[Citroënbender]

Unsurprising, really.

[buggerlugs]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-...dable/11555420

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-...dable/11555420

Looking at the cheap end of the market here, did the loan repayment calculator thing and on my wage even with the deposit, its not really enough to live solo and pay off the mortgage on a $400K property 120km out of Melbourne, unless I want to be eating vegemite on toast for breakfast lunch and tea

The weekly repayments were going to be over 60% of my weekly wage - assuming interest rates didn't go up again and a 240km daily commute to work and back.

Realistically I don't think I could live that far out because I'd be spending 2 hours+ commuting to work assuming it was smooth on the freeway out of Melbourne, and how much fuel would cost me, that same coin buys a 1 bedroom apartment in some of the inner Melbourne suburbs.

Its one of those things where I need to jump $20K+ in wages so change industries or partner up for it to be realistic.

The deposit isn't a big deal, its just not really viable for the repayment side of things.

[.:4:.]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Looking at the cheap end of the market here, did the loan repayment calculator thing and on my wage even with the deposit, its not really enough to live solo and pay off the mortgage on a $400K property 120km out of Melbourne, unless I want to be eating vegemite on toast for breakfast lunch and tea

The weekly repayments were going to be over 60% of my weekly wage - assuming interest rates didn't go up again and a 240km daily commute to work and back.

Realistically I don't think I could live that far out because I'd be spending 2 hours+ commuting to work assuming it was smooth on the freeway out of Melbourne, and how much fuel would cost me, that same coin buys a 1 bedroom apartment in some of the inner Melbourne suburbs.

Its one of those things where I need to jump $20K+ in wages so change industries or partner up for it to be realistic.

The deposit isn't a big deal, its just not really viable for the repayment side of things.

So granted things were a lot cheaper in 2012, but i pay a 460k mortgage in sydney, 25km from the cbd as the crow flys, 36km by car. Granted, when i got the loan i was on only $25 an hour but had a wife to feed me. The whole time i have paid the mortgage. So i offed the wife a few years back, kept the house and yes my rate has gone up, i manage to pay the house and associated costs, and live a life perfectly fine on my income alone. Well, i cant afford a drug addiction or anything like that, but i do ok on a pretty average income. I have a nice boat and crap, but in my favour, whilst i own a car, i drive a work car with a fuel card and work pay for a few other things for my private use. So, thats in the realm of a few grand of my income saved per year. The first few years of a mortgage are crushing, but after that, wages go up, however the price you paid for a place does not change. So it does get easier in time. And when you buy a house to live in, its to live in, not an investment, so current values mean nothing. If it tanks who cares, the market always picks up in time and well, you need somewhere to live.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

its not really enough to live solo and pay off the mortgage on a $400K property 120km out of Melbourne, .

Franco, I like your thinking, can you convince the other 5 million people in Melbourne to stay there too please. As you know there's nothing to see out here in the country.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-...dable/11555420

Yes and no.

You can still buy a unit in Sydney for under $300k.

You can still buy a villa / townhouse with a courtyard and garage for under $400k.

You can still buy a freestanding house with land for under $500k.

It won't be modern, it won't be big, it won't have fancy communal facilities.

Hell, it probably won't even have a lift.

It won't be within cooee of the CBD.

But, it's a roof over your head and it's a start.

The 'great Australian dream' used to revolve around a 1/4 acre block with a hills hoist, a Holden or Ford in the driveway and lots of grass to play backyard cricket or set up your water slide.

That's doable, but many people simply don't get that ownership of decent property in a decent location is a gradual process that takes time, effort, sacrifice and a little bit of luck.

Most millennials would be more happy to rent a shoebox in Newtown for $600 a week then say they were living in Campbelltown / Penrith or Liverpool with repayments for less that are actually paying for eventual ownership.

I'm a high school teacher. I'm amazed at the amount of Yr 11 students who have never had a job or got there L's.

I feel sick watching most of Yr12 students (adults) getting dropped off by mummy or daddy like primary school children.

Why don't they have a job?? So that they can concentrate on their studies, get into Uni and get their dream job straight out.

Why don't they drive? So they can concentrate on their studies, not date, be constantly controlled and monitored by their parents so they can get into Uni and get that great job straight out.

Oh how I fear for the future.....

[Citroënbender]

My gay nomad clients have struggled to tenant one of their Newtown shoeboxes at $400/wk and although dated, it’s not too bad. It took almost six weeks to turn around between tenancies. One of the agents reckoned that lenders were still gunshy of anything under 50sqm lot size and therefore purchases were mostly the SMSF crowd.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

My gay nomad clients have struggled to tenant one of their Newtown shoeboxes at $400/wk and although dated, it’s not too bad. It took almost six weeks to turn around between tenancies. One of the agents reckoned that lenders were still gunshy of anything under 50sqm lot size and therefore purchases were mostly the SMSF crowd.

They still anal about that ancient 50sqm rule???

Was the same 20 years ago when people actually laughed and felt sorry for you for buying something so small.

You would like this... I bought a 1br unit of 48sqm with a garage of 15 or 16sqm.

I was much younger and I didn't have that 'full time job for the minimum 2 or 3 years' that was mandatory back then to get a loan.

Lender first refused to lend because of my income (yet he jokes I was making more than him as a casual teacher + other incomes).

Then they picked me up on the unit size and didn't want to get into the debate about if the garage was included to pass the 50sqm rule.

To be honest, I believe the guy was jealous of my situation and was making it difficult on purpose.

He proudly told me that the only way to not lose your holding deposit and buy the property was to purchase it outright.

I said 'ok then'. And did just that.

Mongrel called me a few weeks later seeing that the property was sold and pretending like he was following up on the loan and asked me if I needed help on another property.

Said... Nah, I bought that unit after taking your advice.

Was $72k if I recall... back when that was decent coin

[prydey]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

I feel sick watching most of Yr12 students (adults) getting dropped off by mummy or daddy like primary school children.

Why don't they have a job?? So that they can concentrate on their studies, get into Uni and get their dream job straight out.

Why don't they drive? So they can concentrate on their studies, not date, be constantly controlled and monitored by their parents so they can get into Uni and get that great job straight out.

Oh how I fear for the future.....

Feel better now, being all judgemental?

My daughter's uni course had an entry atar requirement of around 97. You think the students that want to get in to those sort of courses don't put in the work? I'd much rather have my daughter put in the hard work at this end of her life (which she did, 98.7 atar) and set herself up for later than be worrying about after school jobs or getting a licence as soon as able.

You fear for the future but it may well be controlled by those students you detest now, who see long term, not short term.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by prydey

Feel better now, being all judgemental?

My daughter's uni course had an entry atar requirement of around 97. You think the students that want to get in to those sort of courses don't put in the work? I'd much rather have my daughter put in the hard work at this end of her life (which she did, 98.7 atar) and set herself up for later than be worrying about after school jobs or getting a licence as soon as able.

You fear for the future but it may well be controlled by those students you detest now, who see long term, not short term.

True for the people that actually use the free time as intended.

More than half didn't. They did what they did to keep their parents happy.

When they didn't get the marks they wanted there was always an excuse.

Now Uni's are wanting to see other 'non academic' entry factors than marks to get in. Life experiences, membership to clubs and groups, volunteering in the community, individual initiatives and interests, learning stuff outside of school because you wanted to not had to, work experience, involvement in sports etc.

These life skills were a given not that long ago before smart phones and Fortnite.

Now some Uni's are interviewing applicants for courses. I know of academically brilliant students that have not got in because they bombed out in the interview.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

I'm a high school teacher. I'm amazed at the amount of Yr 11 students who have never had a job or got there L's.

I feel sick watching most of Yr12 students (adults) getting dropped off by mummy or daddy like primary school children.

Why don't they have a job?? So that they can concentrate on their studies, get into Uni and get their dream job straight out.

Why don't they drive? So they can concentrate on their studies, not date, be constantly controlled and monitored by their parents so they can get into Uni and get that great job straight out.

Oh how I fear for the future.....

A lot depends on the upbringing, my 3 eldest all started work at 14, my Eldest dropped out of school after yr11 due to bullying, all his so called mates said he'd be a bum working in fast food.
He turned 21 in August, manages a furniture/electrical retail outlet for a company he's been with just on 12 months and is part way through his first house build.
The people who said he'd fail and finished school have gone nowhere.
School isn't everything its cracked up to be.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

A lot depends on the upbringing, my 3 eldest all started work at 14, my Eldest dropped out of school after yr11 due to bullying, all his so called mates said he'd be a bum working in fast food.
He turned 21 in August, manages a furniture/electrical retail outlet for a company he's been with just on 12 months and is part way through his first house build.
The people who said he'd fail and finished school have gone nowhere.
School isn't everything its cracked up to be.

I agree. That's what I was getting at.

I got a very, very low TER (shocking all my students when I tell them) and have done quite well due more to life skills and upbringing then schooling.

[Franco Cozzo]

I got an ENTER score of 47.55 in 2009, but admittedly I didn't apply myself as I knew I was going into the automotive industry.

Now I'm a 'manager' of the customer service side of a manufacturing companies head office with a 80 year history in Melbourne.

I'm the least educated and most uncouth yobbo out of the entire team but the MVP nationally in customer service and ranked by the GM as most important of the crew - go figure

School looks good on paper, but you can be educated with the street smarts of a pet rock, the problem is getting past the HR team before you get the interview with the team is the big problem.

I look terrible on paper (and in person, which is why I have to work harder than everyone else )

I've just got an eye for opportunities in the market and 'network' very well (fancy word for corruption), I'm not particularly intelligent.

[FairmontGS]

Next cycle well underway

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-...logic/11562824

[78xcgxl]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

Next cycle well underway

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-...logic/11562824

Until the recession hits. Economy is being run to the ground by the Federal government.

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by 78xcgxl

Until the recession hits. Economy is being run to the ground by the Federal government.

Recession? What recession?

There's money sloshing around everywhere looking for yield and cap growth. A recession would make little difference to that and where it ends up.

[MITCHAY]

Mate I got 0 UAI or what is now called ATAR. Drinking beers in my place right now

Anyways after the rate cuts and putting that money back into the extra payments, it's knocked off $100 in interest per month. I suspect a lot of people will be doing this.

I know they want to throw around cheap money but a lot of people are in debt up to their eyeballs. Thankfully it's just the mortgage for me.

[buggerlugs]

Damo, is this near you ?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-...pains/11537562

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

Damo, is this near you ?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-...pains/11537562

I'm central Vic - regional fringe of Melbourne.

That's Melbourne's Western suburbs - unfortunately what's happening out that way is HUGE development without adequate public transport so it forces everyone into cars, I was driving around that area last week.

On the freeway the traffic was banked up about a kilometre in the emergency lane, what they were doing was trying to turn left about a kilometre down the road but lining up in the emergency lane on the freeway, by the time people realised they needed to be in the emergency lane not the left lane like normal they'd stopped on the freeway completely blocking the left lane trying to get in.

It's similar with the SE suburbs but they have better public transport options, except that industry is moving in large numbers to the SE suburbs like Dandenong and Dandenong South, that sucks for people like me who work in those industries as it's a 2.5 hour commute taken up mostly by getting stuck in congestion, it's probably only 100km distance wise.

The problem is there's about 130,000 people moving to Melbourne every year, prior to this government we haven't really had infrastructure investment required to sustain our huge growth for the past 20 years.

The government should incentivise business to move out to the other capital cities, Adelaide is a city that lacks opportunity for the little ones coming through University, they come out with a degree and no opportunity at home so they move to Melbourne or Sydney - Melbourne essentially is growing by an entire Adelaide every decade.

It's not sustainable development expanding Melbourne further and further out while we all commute by road to Melbourne CBD or Melbourne SE suburbs.

We're expected to eclipse Sydney by 2026 and become Australia largest capital city in population.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

I'm central Vic - regional fringe of Melbourne.

It's not sustainable development expanding Melbourne further and further out while we all commute by road to Melbourne CBD or Melbourne SE suburbs.

We're expected to eclipse Sydney by 2026 and become Australia largest capital city in population.

I think the only thing saving Sydney from more over development is, it is surrounded by three huge National Parks and the sea. Not to mention topographically it is basically an island, the Nepean River almost meets the Hawkesbury.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

I think the only thing saving Sydney from more over development is, it is surrounded by three huge National Parks and the sea. Not to mention topographically it is basically an island, the Nepean River almost meets the Hawkesbury.

Sydney still has an absolute ton of dirt ripe for development.

They just drag things out with rezoning and make residential lot development financially crippling.



Sent from my LG-M700 using Tapatalk

[MITCHAY]

Bank passed on 0.15 for me. Asked my broker to get them to knock the other 0.10 off to match new business rate.

They knocked off extra last time so why the **** wouldn't you ask?

[Franco Cozzo]

Sydney is an absolute monster too geographically - especially Western Sydney.

If you went as far North from Melbourne as you did West as that Penrith region is you're in regional Victoria, it's not 'Melbourne' - you're talking Gisborne.

The first time I went to Sydney I booked a hotel in Rooty Hill expecting it to be within 'Sydney', technically it is but it was a $113 one way drunken Uber ride from Circular Quay

That RSL is like the Crown Casino of pokies - like an old fogies arcade

[roKWiz]

Franco,
I can not complain as I'm currently staying in Darling Harbour.
My old man was jammy when he bought this apartment just as he sold his place in Florida (a month before Sept 11) and walk into this corporate apartment just as they were flogging them off cheaply, one year after the Sydney Olympics.
Every thing was included even the plates and cutlery.

I reckon I wouldn't stay here if I had to stay in the burbs now.

Just been googling Truck Part suppliers in Sydney (for the Louie) and do you think I can find anything which is easy to get to now from central Sydney.
They're all out the back of beyond, in fact I can find more places in Albury to chase parts.
Grew up in Sydney but how things have changed, no one makes anything here anymore (apart from coffee)

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

Franco,
I can not complain as I'm currently staying in Darling Harbour.
My old man was jammy when he bought this apartment just as he sold his place in Florida (a month before Sept 11) and walk into this corporate apartment just as they were flogging them off cheaply, one year after the Sydney Olympics.
Every thing was included even the plates and cutlery.

I reckon I wouldn't stay here if I had to stay in the burbs now.

Just been googling Truck Part suppliers in Sydney (for the Louie) and do you think I can find anything which is easy to get to now from central Sydney.
They're all out the back of beyond, in fact I can find more places in Albury to chase parts.
Grew up in Sydney but how things have changed, no one makes anything here anymore (apart from coffee)

Gleeman Truck Parts - Western Sydney

This is an interesting perspective about the current state of our economy:

https://www.news.com.au/finance/econ...d9697efcc81fb5

It has truths to it, I come out of our education system a decade ago, out of the 250 of us who started in year 7 together, 140 of us made it to the end of year 12, of those 140, it was myself and 9 others who went onto trades, the rest went to university.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Gleeman Truck Parts - Western Sydney

This is an interesting perspective about the current state of our economy:

It has truths to it, I come out of our education system a decade ago, out of the 250 of us who started in year 7 together, 140 of us made it to the end of year 12, of those 140, it was myself and 9 others who went onto trades, the rest went to university.

Yep, everyone wants to go to uni, learn everything in "theory", come out and walk into the top paying jobs. Doesn't happen like that anyone.
The trade education system has been falling apart for a long time, now its starting to bite back on skills shortage and hence our economy because we don't know how to build, fix or make stuff here anymore.

And everyone complains about cashed up tradies.

Franco, Gleemans are Ok I use them a lot when here.

[.:4:.]

Uni degrees, trades licences, all that. Put that aside. The wrong attitude people have today is the qualification makes the money. No, hard work with the qualification is how you make the money, not even that, but just hard and honest work. I see it all the time. The amount of young blokes i see come through the door and leave because they cant take an 8 hour day of not even a hard slog, but an honest day, thinking that in 4 years cruising they will instantly be a cashed up tradie blows my mind. Im not cashed up. I work hard for what i have. And its nothing amazing. But still, the other hard working blokes who are my colleagues still question how the hell i own a house. Being on the same or a better rate then myself, i just have to say, well, i only earn the extra 20k over them because saturdays to me are considered work days. Overtime, work. Money can be exchanged for goods and services. So i put in the extra service in exchange for money, and that money i use in exchange for goods. Well, the entitlement which people think they have, wake up sunshine. You only take out what you put in. Nobody cares about what is handed to them, yet sonething earned is treated like gold. Its a generational attitude thing.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by .:4:.

Uni degrees, trades licences, all that. Put that aside. The wrong attitude people have today is the qualification makes the money. No, hard work with the qualification is how you make the money, not even that, but just hard and honest work. I see it all the time. The amount of young blokes i see come through the door and leave because they cant take an 8 hour day of not even a hard slog, but an honest day, thinking that in 4 years cruising they will instantly be a cashed up tradie blows my mind. Im not cashed up. I work hard for what i have. And its nothing amazing. But still, the other hard working blokes who are my colleagues still question how the hell i own a house. Being on the same or a better rate then myself, i just have to say, well, i only earn the extra 20k over them because saturdays to me are considered work days. Overtime, work. Money can be exchanged for goods and services. So i put in the extra service in exchange for money, and that money i use in exchange for goods. Well, the entitlement which people think they have, wake up sunshine. You only take out what you put in. Nobody cares about what is handed to them, yet sonething earned is treated like gold. Its a generational attitude thing.

I been approached by young blokes numerous times in my travels asking to be my offsider then process to tell me what they can not do.
Oh I got a sore back, Oh I can not travel far, I spend a lot of time in the gym so I might not be able to work long hours one guy insisted I should provide a forklift for any helper.

Can you do the F ing work or not if not p*ss off.

This laziness is effecting every industry and I can see why it is effecting the housing market, really if anything, less trade skills means the housing market should go higher due to less houses.

[.:4:.]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

I been approached by young blokes numerous times in my travels asking to be my offsider then process to tell me what they can not do.
Oh I got a sore back, Oh I can not travel far, I spend a lot of time in the gym so I might not be able to work long hours one guy insisted I should provide a forklift for any helper.

Can you do the F ing work or not if not p*ss off.

This laziness is effecting every industry and I can see why it is effecting the housing market, really if anything, less trade skills means the housing market should go higher due to less houses.

Gym junkies being weak? Image not translating into being capable of work due to last nights sesh? Yeah, seen that. It annoys me. Just because you bench 140, doesnt translate to actual work. When i show up these blokes at work with my anohrexic preying mantis frame with dad bod thrown on top and they ask what i bench. My response is i bench fat bitches. That shuts them up fast. I also do this thing that is these days unthinkable. At work i disconnect from anything personal and focus on the task at hand. None of this glued to a phone business. Work ethic is really hard to find these days. Its bred out i reckon. The acceptance of failure and personal image is a major factor in that. Work = house. House=work. House=expensive. Expensive=work. House= not renting. Rent=gets more expensive. So the rental market is for fools. Why cop it and complain. Granted i can control my income. Overtime is available. But for a salary, be good at the job, get yourself into such a state where the company will take a hit if you leave then ask, well, tell, for more. Things do not magically happen.