The $500,000-valued Phase III GT-HO Falcon was passed in at auction

[Vesper Martini]

Originally Posted by falcon_bandit

dont understand why owners of these are holding out for so much.

amounts already offered are life changing.

I can only speak for one that In know of who has a Phase III as part of his collection.(sheep skin seat covers and all)
He's only sold one of his car collection that I know of and that's car is now part of the Bowden collection on the sunshine Coast.
http://www.bowdensown.com.au/why-we-...our-collection

I think the collectors will only sell if they really have to or if they're convinced its going to a better home.

[ford71V8]

Originally Posted by XB GS 351 Coupe

Should have taken the money and run, he could now buy the car back for 400K and have pocketed the difference.

They will never be worth anything even remotely close to $975K again, and considering he paid 5K for it back in the day.

I still regret as a 20 year old I looked at a mint red XY GT HO being sold for 25K ono, was an old Greek bloke selling it to do some renovations on his house at Greystanes in Sydney. Was talked out of it by my old man who was not a car person in the slightest and he convinced me I was mad paying drug money for an 'old **** box' (his words not mine). I had the cash sitting in the bank as I was working in an oil refinery at the time earning big money.

Ended up buying a Mazda 323 Sport for 9K instead, which ended up being stolen and burned out a year later.

Have a similar story with 20yo me and a Landau.

On the bright side, a 323 was stolen and burnt out, not a GTHO

[falcon_bandit]

Originally Posted by CoupeKing

Need to take into consideration that money means %*&^ to some people. An old timer that bought her new couldnt give a &^%$ if it's worth $1.00 or ten million

When does the sentimental feelings go out the window then? at 50k.... 100k... 1mill ?

If the car means that much to someone that it would take an obscene amount of cash to part with it, why is it up for sale in the first place? Its like putting a price on a family member

(although i have considered trading the wife for a newer model)

[MercurySilver]

Cant say id spend half a mill on a falcon

[CoupeKing]

Originally Posted by falcon_bandit

When does the sentimental feelings go out the window then? at 50k.... 100k... 1mill ?

If the car means that much to someone that it would take an obscene amount of cash to part with it, why is it up for sale in the first place? Its like putting a price on a family member

(although i have considered trading the wife for a newer model)

The sentimental value goes out the window when the owner passes away and the family member that showed no interest in it, or called it a piece of *&^% for years, is as the door with tea and scones before the rigor mortis has set-in.

There is no price for something that is irreplaceable...to 'some people'

[XB GS 351 Coupe]

Originally Posted by CoupeKing

Need to take into consideration that money means %*&^ to some people. An old timer that bought her new couldnt give a &^%$ if it's worth $1.00 or ten million, regardless of what Wozza's mate rekons she's werf <--- who would have probably tubbed it.

There is a BIG difference between Wozza's mate and a bloke rocking up with 25K short of a million saying I want to buy your car.

Especially when the car is supposedly on the market for sale. Different story when the car is not for sale.

None of my cars are for sale, but if Wozza's mate recons my coupe is worth 5k or 100K i could not give a rats, but if Mr Moneybags turns up with a Briefcase with 150K in it and says I want to buy your coupe, I think he would have a deal, even though I have owned it for 30 years this year.

Originally Posted by Ford17

There's definitely a set window of opportunity for selling collectible cars at their maximum value.

And lessons can be learned from these GT-HO stories.

The ideal market conditions for selling must be where there are plenty of people who couldn't afford them when new and lusted after them, but who now can afford to buy them many years later; and when the economy is vibrant/optimistic.

Once those who want and can remember these old/collectible cars have gone, then the window of opportunity has passed.

Just like with old MG's, Mark II Jags, etc - in demand 20-30 years ago, but kids today would have little interest in them.

100% spot on as the generation that lusted after these cars hits the cemetery or nursing homes, no one will give two hoots about some XY GT HO.

I work with people ranging from 25-55, and guess what anyone under 35 does not even know what a GTHO is or could care in the slightest. I have had blokes around my place checking out my ute and coupe and they are confused why I would drive or want such a car when it does not have A/C and satnav and the latest iCrap compatability software.

Half of them think my BF GT is ancient and outdated technology

So my guess will be in another 10-15 may be 20 years a GTHO will be worth peanuts, and even when for sale no one will even know what it is or care in the slightest if it gets turned into baked bean cans.

[CoupeKing]

Originally Posted by XB GS 351 Coupe

None of my cars are for sale, but if Wozza's mate recons my coupe is worth 5k or 100K i could not give a rats, but if Mr Moneybags turns up with a Briefcase with 150K in it and says I want to buy your coupe, I think he would have a deal, even though I have owned it for 30 years this year.

Yeah ok..and what would you do with that 150k?...replace your custom coupe and then some. I was talking about a P3. See how many of them you could go buy, or even an RPO coupe.

[zoesgift]

Originally Posted by XB GS 351 Coupe

One word : 'Greed'

its not greed its a choice made! if you are selling anything and you have a price in mind AND are not desperate to sell why sell? for those holding out for close to a million dollar pay day then perhaps that time has passed however high quality cars, especially those with low miles and unrestored, or fully restored with genuine or nos parts will always fetch values queried by those of us who cant afford or justify

[blackf6]

I would of bought it. But I'm not paying half a mill for a chicken coop.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Is the Australian classic car market set for a crash?

You may have heard of the global ‘Big Mac Index’, a quick way to make exchange-rate theory a bit more digestible. Burgernomics, if you will.

Buyers of Aussie classic cars have their own convenient yardstick of how heated the market is and it’s the transaction price of a Ford XY Falcon GT-HO Phase III. Sorry if the name’s not quite so snappy, but as a bellwether to the health of the market this really is the gold standard.

So it was with some interest that a 1971 Phase III rolled onto the block at Shannons auctions on Monday, subjected to the hard-headed valuation of Melbourne’s gimlet-eyed car dealers. It wasn’t just any Phase III, either, having been with the same owner for a quarter of a century, undergoing a nut-and-bolt restoration in 1998, and subsequently taking out the GT Nationals in 1999 and 2003. In short, it was about as good as you’ll find.

The pre-sale estimates predicted a bidding range between $480,000 and $520,000. After a lot of cajoling from the auctioneers, who opened the bidding at $450,000, the car eventually laboured to $480,000, not meeting reserve before being passed in.

Shannons’ Christophe Boribon said he was "a little disappointed" that the car failed to meet reserve, adding that it was "a special and correct car with good provenance" and that he believed it was worth half a million dollars. Negotiations are continuing between the vendor and potential buyers.

Phase III values peaked in 2007, when a car traded for $750,000 and others were said to have sold for even more privately. Many predicted it would become the first Aussie million-dollar classic.

Subsequently, the market contracted to a low in 2010, when Phase IIIs were changing hands at just over $300,000, before bouncing back. But prices have been heading gradually south this year.

And it’s the same in the US, where classic-car valuer Hagerty reports private sales activity is currently at an 18-month low.

The Hagerty Market Rating tool attempts to measure the heat of the US market with a weighted algorithm to fifteen data points in eight categories, and the rating has dropped for nine of the past 12 months.

"The key differentiator is that the Hagerty Market Rating isn't based simply on public data like auction sales, which only make up three percent of the annual transactions in the classic car world," Hagerty CEO McKeel Hagerty said.

"A large component of this rating is based on private-owner-to-private-owner sales, which is the most elusive and difficult data to obtain. We developed this as a tool to allow anyone who is serious about treating collector cars as investments to immediately take the temperature of the classic car market and truly understand the factors that cause it to move up or down."

There has also been a marked softening of prices and interest in Europe.

Coys Techno Classica auction at Essen, Germany is one of Europe’s most prestigious events and across the board cars failed to hit pre-sale estimates at this year’s event in early April.

BMW’s first road-registered BMW M1 had a pre-sale range of €550-650K but struggled to €510K, while an immaculate red Porsche 964 Turbo, previously thought of as a bulletproof investment, realised €152K against pre-sale estimates of €195-220K.

All 13 Ferraris on offer laboured to meet expectations, ending up on average just 86.4 percent of median pre-sale estimates. And 11 of the 13 failed to meet even the lowest figure of the range.

Things don’t appear too bad in Australia, but there has clearly been a slight softening of values, many cars previously thought of as blue-chip investments struggling to make the low end of expectations.

Shannons sold a 1973 Torana GTR XU-1 on Monday for a bargain $47,000 which was at the low end of the $45-55K estimate, but it wasn’t concours by any measure. On the other hand, anything with a Jaguar badge attracted frenzied bidding and the night closed with a very strong 91 percent clearance rate.

While now might be the time to leap into clueless speculation, collectors looking at the long game will be prepared to ride out any fluctuations. Serious cars will always attract serious collectors, many of whom buy when everybody else is trying to offload.

Warren Buffet had it right when he said, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” We’ll raise a Big Mac to that.

http://www.msn.com/en-au/motoring/ne...id=mailsignout

[zoesgift]

if the 22000 mile car referred to earlier in this discussion came up for sale and is true to its mileage, unrestored, log books etc id guarantee you it will fetch over 500k NO PROBLEMS. In fact it would probably change garages without the public knowing about....true enthusiasts just wish to preserve heritage not make profits. lets face it if you have that sort of coin to dispose of then the topic here being discussed, price, is not relevant.if the profit comes then that's a bonus. there are a number of sub 30000 mile phase 3 gt hos NOT including the yellow glow car which now resides in Tasmania, which will over time change hands and the general public wont know about it. these are cars which enthusiasts go hunting for. there seems to be a pre occupation with what a phase 3 is worth....fact is the muscle car boom and then fall has still resulted in people having a car worth more than they could of dreamt of irrespective of what badge it wears. enjoy them ffs

[Vesper Martini]

To me cars like the latest Mustang capture all of the Classic look & styling but with added, Power, comfort, safety & toys.
But that's is for the Buyers that want to use their cars, the Collectors after old Classics are another market entirely

[GT0132]

Originally Posted by Ford17

The ideal market conditions for selling must be where there are plenty of people who couldn't afford them when new and lusted after them, but who now can afford to buy them many years later; and when the economy is vibrant/optimistic.
.

but to those who lust after these cars, and didn't have $4 grand in 1970 why didn't they pounce on their dream car circa 1990 when they were $10 grand rather than wait till 2007/8 when they were selling for 3/4 of a mill. If you're savvy enough to accumulate that sort of coin, surely 17 years earlier you could scrape at least $10 grand together

I was 7 when the XW came out in 1969. Our neighbour bought a Fairmont new in that shape but it wasn't until the XA came out in 1972 that I really started taking an interest in Fords - both the 4 door and coupe.

[mike_nofx]

Originally Posted by GT0132

but to those who lust after these cars, and didn't have $4 grand in 1970 why didn't they pounce on their dream car circa 1990 when they were $10 grand rather than wait till 2007/8 when they were selling for 3/4 of a mill. If you're savvy enough to accumulate that sort of coin, surely 17 years earlier you could scrape at least $10 grand together

I was 7 when the XW came out in 1969. Our neighbour bought a Fairmont new in that shape but it wasn't until the XA came out in 1972 that I really started taking an interest in Fords - both the 4 door and coupe.

I think because people don't just want what they want, they want what other people want.

If a car is undesirable to the masses then you may question if you actually want it yourself or not, but once it becomes popular and a classic you realise you want in.

[Ford17]

Originally Posted by GT0132

but to those who lust after these cars, and didn't have $4 grand in 1970 why didn't they pounce on their dream car circa 1990 when they were $10 grand rather than wait till 2007/8 when they were selling for 3/4 of a mill. If you're savvy enough to accumulate that sort of coin, surely 17 years earlier you could scrape at least $10 grand together

While it's always hard to apply a general rule of thumb, you will hopefully see what I was getting at.

However though, I do recall GT-HO (P3) values hitting an all time high of around $100k, just prior to 1990 (when the recession hit).

Not many people may remember, but that 1990-1993 recession was a particularly bleak time - and was the closest thing to a depression experienced here since the 1930's.

[Sprint]

check it out, news story just broke about this very topic.

http://www.msn.com/en-au/motoring/ne...cid=spartanntp

[katefactor]

I tend to relate values to any other collectables, like antique furniture, stamps, coins etc for example. The real value is in unrestored condition, anything that has been restored will never have the same appeal.
As time goes on this will become more and more important as a guide to authenticity and provenance. Some might say that a total restoration to concourse condition is the go and others will say it can hide dishonesty. For that kind of money I would want to see one in unrestored condition. Maybe they don't exist like that any more but that's were the value is.

[zoesgift]

trust me they do

[Agile]

Originally Posted by Ford17

While it's always hard to apply a general rule of thumb, you will hopefully see what I was getting at.

However though, I do recall GT-HO (P3) values hitting an all time high of around $100k, just prior to 1990 (when the recession hit).

Not many people may remember, but that 1990-1993 recession was a particularly bleak time - and was the closest thing to a depression experienced here since the 1930's.

Yep Interest rates at 17.5 %. Sent me broke in the building industry and forced me to sell my toy at the time. Beautiful SS Torana Hatchback. Broke my heart

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by Sprint

check it out, news story just broke about this very topic.

http://www.msn.com/en-au/motoring/ne...cid=spartanntp

Have posted that already on this very same page.

[mr smith]

Jags and Porsches are the hot item now. Rather than an aussie muscle car if you put your money into a steel bumper 911 during the boom years you would be laughing now.
XK 120s have also gone off, showing gains of over 50% for the last 18 months. This is how it should be, world appeal cars will always be a good bet. Our local stuff is only worth someting if the local economy is doing well.

[Stefan]

Originally Posted by GT0132

but to those who lust after these cars, and didn't have $4 grand in 1970 why didn't they pounce on their dream car circa 1990 when they were $10 grand rather than wait till 2007/8 when they were selling for 3/4 of a mill. If you're savvy enough to accumulate that sort of coin, surely 17 years earlier you could scrape at least $10 grand together

I was 7 when the XW came out in 1969. Our neighbour bought a Fairmont new in that shape but it wasn't until the XA came out in 1972 that I really started taking an interest in Fords - both the 4 door and coupe.

You can't compare figures like you are.

In 1990 a decent HO would have been $50K+, a house in Sydney depending on suburb 100k, so 50K was a bucket load of cash. No Ho for 10K in 1990, no point pulling number out of your ar$e for an nonsensical argument.

It never sounds like much in hindsight but who had 50% of the value of a 3 bedroom house to blow on a GTHO?

Just did my Google check, I remember when Street Machine gave away a Phase 3, the prize was valued at 50K, the year.......1989.

Owning a GT, I hear all the BS stories every time I fill up the car. "yeah I could have bought one for 10k but bought a XXXX", "My Dad had a HO", blah blah...at the end of the day they were expensive from day one.

Even a 25K HO 20 years ago I doubt was anything but a POS or just BS.

[Tex Scrotum]

Originally Posted by Stefan

You can't compare figures like you are.



In 1990 a decent HO would have been $50K+, a house in Sydney depending on suburb 100k, so 50K was a bucket load of cash. No Ho for 10K in 1990, no point pulling number out of your ar$e for an nonsensical argument.



It never sounds like much in hindsight but who had 50% of the value of a 3 bedroom house to blow on a GTHO?



Just did my Google check, I remember when Street Machine gave away a Phase 3, the prize was valued at 50K, the year.......1989.



Owning a GT, I hear all the BS stories every time I fill up the car. "yeah I could have bought one for 10k but bought a XXXX", "My Dad had a HO", blah blah...at the end of the day they were expensive from day one.



Even a 25K HO 20 years ago I doubt was anything but a POS or just BS.

Yeah those are my memories as well, I don't EVER remember GTHOs being "affordable" , even GTs , SLRs and A9Xs were always pricey compared to what I was earning......and then there was expensive insurance which you had to have because these cars were always getting knocked off.

[Angeldust]

and everyones mate had a Gt-HO.. since every Gt was a HO....

[Stefan]

Originally Posted by Angeldust

and everyones mate had a Gt-HO.. since every Gt was a HO....

not wrong mate, I had a 6 cyl XY fairmont daily for two years and every joker complemented me on my Hoey...

[Bearman]

Originally Posted by Tex Scrotum

Yeah those are my memories as well, I don't EVER remember GTHOs being "affordable" , even GTs , SLRs and A9Xs were always pricey compared to what I was earning......and then there was expensive insurance which you had to have because these cars were always getting knocked off.

This is exactly the point, considering people's pay and living costs:

In 1971 $5K was a lot of money to find, beyond most people.
In 1990 $50K was a lot of money to find, beyond most people.
Today $500K is a lot of money to find, beyond most people.

It's all relative.

[XB GS 351 Coupe]

Originally Posted by Bearman

This is exactly the point, considering people's pay and living costs:

In 1971 $5K was a lot of money to find, beyond most people.
In 1990 $50K was a lot of money to find, beyond most people.
Today $500K is a lot of money to find, beyond most people.

It's all relative.

Very simplified and not really correct:

Average wage in 71 was $6,497.08. So GT HO less than 1 years wages for the average earner.

Average wage in 1990 was $21,027.98. So GT HO around 2.5 years wages for the average earner.

Average wage in 2014 was $46,481.52. So GT HO around 11 years wages for the average earner.

No not really relative.

[snopony]

I do think there are several opportunities for these vehicles that would raise their value... BUT its probably going to be more on a personal level.
I was raised in a family with xys. So when my sister and I got our licenses, thats the path we headed down (although yes there are kids brought up whose parents owned one and they couldnt care less- personal preference) So now my son is being brought up in a household that has xy's and xb's.... The same as my sister and I were. who knows what he will want to buy when he gets his license, but there will certainly be the "yeh mum had one and my aunty when i was little" connection. As is probably the case with a lot of parents here.
If he waits till my age till he gets one.... the car will be 70 odd years old.
will there be many around...? what will they be worth? how long is a piece of string.
ALTHOUGH, he is 10 yrs old. "mum when you go can you leave me your car" yep no prob thought I... " I mean the Mazda, I really like it" (forehead slap)

[Autolite]

It seems to me that there are 2 types of people in this world, those that own a GTHO and those that dont. Those that own one will obviously hope that their car appreciates in value and those that dont all say that they are over priced. Simple as that.

[Tex Scrotum]

Originally Posted by Autolite

It seems to me that there are 2 types of people in this world, those that own a GTHO and those that dont. Those that own one will obviously hope that their car appreciates in value and those that dont all say that they are over priced. Simple as that.

There's a third type......people who aren't phased either way about price or ownership like me 😉

You see what I did there?......"phased".....lol.... I crack myself up 😂