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#31 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Jan 2010
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Quote:
where costs are much higher? Why production is dying in Australia An example of that would be when BP refinery in Brisbane closed down, ther was actually two companies, BP exploration and BP production, the first company sold the refinery the oil at high price so the local refinery looked like a loss maker while exploration remained out reach of Australian taxes. Now they just import petrol and diesel from Asia. Every off shored business does similar……..you think those Thai Utes cost $60k to make? Last edited by jpd80; 02-04-2022 at 10:12 PM. |
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#32 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: NSW
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Luckily for Australia we have a very urbanised population. Somehow a lot of people on the internet have a 400km round trip to their work/local shop and of course it’s uphill both ways just to drain the battery a little quicker. |
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#33 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: WA
Posts: 1,134
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So are you telling us that you also meet the wombat criteria and believe that EV's will be 50% of new car sales by 2025 or dare I say even 2030. |
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#34 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 1,001
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Yawn.
This article is less about supply chain issues, less about EV verses ICE, and more of a subtle nudge of political leanings. That said ... It needs to be really clear - to both ICE and EV proponents - that car manufacturers are not altruistic. They really don't care about petrol engines, diesel engines, batteries, electric drive trains, cherry red paint, deep blue paint with racing stripes, or <insert automobile specification> whatever. We live in a capitalistic society. All that automobile manufacturers care about is making the most amount of money possible from you (the consumer). They want to attach themselves to your wallet and with as much regularity as possible, suck out as much cash as they can, and ideally make you feel an inner glow of worthiness as you drive that new car out of the Dealer's lot. But, your inner glow is optional if car manufacturers can get their grubby hands on your cash. If you are a die-in-the-wool <insert option like V8 turbo diesel> person, and car manufactures can sense a profitable market for this combo, then, car manufactures will churn them out. They will even be churning out <insert option> in the year 2322, 2422, and 2522 if there is a profitable market for these cars. ICE will not disappear if there remains a profitable market for them. Not now, not ever. However, what is clearly happening is a slow change in consumer sentiment. How or why that sentiment is changing is irrelevant. The bottom line for car manufactures is that some, not all, some, consumers have such a strong preference for an EV that they are prepared to swap brands to avoid buying an ICE. Remember, car manufactures are all about making money. One lost ICE sale (for an EV) is not worth thinking about. Ten thousand lost ICE sales (to another EV car manufacture) is the ebb and flow of business. One hundred thousand lost ICE car sales and now we are starting to talk about impact on profitability. When you read the next bit, keep in mind that American's were making and selling hamburgers well before McDonalds came along. While many absolutely despise Elon Musk, you have to give him credit for sensing a market opportunity to sell EV. A decade ago, he was selling $185M worth of cars per annum. Last year he sold $53,824M worth of stock. That is an increase of 29,094% over a decade. Keep in mind that Ford's income from sales in 2021 was $136B, GM income was $120B, and Toyota $262B. Ford, GM, Toyota, et al, look at that $53B worth of sales and ask themselves how they can get part of that action. It doesn't take an Einstein to conclude that since Tesla only sell EV, there must be a market for EV. There are a few negatives for an established car manufacture;
On the positive side
How this eventually plays out - I don't really know. Remember, we live in a capitalistic society with consumers able to choose how they allocate their resources. I have said a few times on this forum that I think the transition from ICE to EV will take around 50 years. I am still sticking to that forecast. As for the more immediate concern of lack of EV sales ... it is worth also acknowledging that we, the consumers, are very fickle. As an example of how fickle, yesterday I was in my local Coles. There was so much toilet paper that there were pallets of it stockpiled in the isles and on sale. However, there was zero frozen chips in stock. Literally, there was 5 cubic metres of empty freeze shelves set aside for frozen chips. Almost exactly two years ago, when COVID started, consumers stopped buying cars. Literally, overnight, new car sales plummeted to zero. While it is very easy to write long articles in the Guardian lamenting lack of EV, just imagine being the local AU subsidiary saying in April 2020 to the parent company, "Yeah, we will take 10,000 EV in April 2022". |
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#35 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 11,291
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Tesla 3 waiting list has grown from four months to nine months even with a near $5,000 increase.
Still no sign of the Tesla Y for Australia but there’s a second Tesla Plant being built in China for the Y. VW has a BEV manufacturing and battery plant in China about 80% complete with export plans for a Tesla 3 competitor that roughly Usd$20,000 or about $30,000 in our money with LFP battery pack. A lot of hype over electric vehicles in a time of restriction, maybe BYD will offer a few of its vehicles, I have a feeling that Chinese domestic demand is swallowing all of its production space and resources. |
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#36 | |||
Thailand Specials
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Centrefold Lounge
Posts: 49,073
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Quote:
Also I think the issue with toilet paper being massively stocked up and being no frozen chips, is a category management issue. It shows they're acting on lag indicators such as customer demand with how they stock their stores rather than lead indicators. Think of customer demand like a bell curve, customer demand massively increases, you're chasing your suppliers for more and more and more and more stock as the curve goes upwards, but then when customer demand falls off you start receiving your toilet paper on the other end of the bell curve when all the customer demand is gone and no one wants it anymore ![]() You want to read the market and have something before the demand is there so you can sell it right away when the demand appears, thats a lead indicator. Prior to me departing the industry, the curious case of the BA/BF/FG Falcon shifter cable was a good one, we should have designed, developed and released it 15 years ago when they were new cars in anticipation for it, in the end we designed, developed and released it when all the cars went to the wreckers because they couldn't get replacements and we missed all the customer demand so we had hundreds of BA/BF/FG falcon shifter cables but no customers with Falcons because it took us three years by the time we got the demand to by the time the product was ready to sell to customers ![]() Bringing this back on topic, we're starting to see traditional auto makers get on the EV train, they've left it to Tesla for a long time, missed all the early adopters but they're in a good position to have products in their range ready for customer demand as it ramps up, there's $53B on the table there they're eyeing off a share of. Last edited by Franco Cozzo; 03-04-2022 at 01:20 PM. |
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#37 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: Catland
Posts: 3,638
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Without reading the whole thread, I tend to use Tony Seba's forecast as a bit of a guide
His forecast was for US, or world market? But what he outlines is a prodigiously big change over the next decade in many markets. One thing I took away from it when I saw it a couple of years ago was 'affordable EV by 2023'. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0 Worth a listen - bear in mind this is 4 years ago when he's making the call. What I've noticed is that covid/inflation has moved the goal posts of 'affordable'. Where we might have said 20K is a Corolla price and that's where the volume EV must land, that 20K is now 30K- which gets it closer to EV pricing, which is coming down. I think the MG SUV EV offers the best value at present, at about 40-45K it's getting closer to the 30-35K price start in that segment. So it's coming. The next point is that Australian conditions are different to US/world - we have huge distances and little infrastructure, yet most population in about 7 urban areas. So we might get a schism: ICE/hybrid rules the bush, while the cities go electric. Diesel may well continue to rule how everything gets freighted/harvested/mined for some time yet. Also of some note, I would argue that we are beginning to see weather patterns change. I'm a surfer so my head is in this space a bit more. Currently the La Nina is doing a good impression of the 1970s, but we're also seeing more meriodonal weather patterns in the northern hemi and resultantly some crazy hot/cold weather shifts and events of heat, snow, flood, cold that are breaking records. The North Atlantic current is slowing. Now whether this is due to CO2 or a forthcoming Grand Solar Minimum - I will leave up to you. (At the same time, the magnetic poles are shifting at an increasing rate and I'd argue this can't be CO2. Also, there are some pretty weird auroral events going on, as well as changes on other bodies in the solar system). If the big weather changes are due to CO2, then this shift to EV will be welcome. But there's much work to do on the grid and power generation if so. If the changes are due to a solar minimum and we cop an extra-large flare during it (when our own magnetic field's protection is lowered) then the joke's on anything electric and mechanical will rule again. For geopolitical reasons, it would be nice to make all the energy for Australia's car fleet in-house. A bit of a no-brainer. (cough natural gas, cough) It seems globalism has peaked, no biggie, it did before 1914 too: Govco has come out supporting lithium/rare earth metals miners, as we move to develop a Western, in house supply chain.
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#38 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Sep 2014
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(clever country)
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#39 | ||
Thailand Specials
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Centrefold Lounge
Posts: 49,073
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As much as I've been calling BS on all these new 'alternatives', I've made so much money on hydrogen, when that COP26 thing happened and the world leaders started circle jerking about hydrogen my shares went up by circa 200%.
Even if something's bull**** and the real world doesn't stack up, you can make money on environmentalist fervour once these world summits occur or the media spruiks some nonsense, use it to your advantage and get onboard. There's money to be made Last edited by Franco Cozzo; 03-04-2022 at 10:28 PM. |
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#40 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: NSW
Posts: 4,325
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Quote:
50% of sales could be EV. Not sure how long it would take but it can probably done within 20 years. I just see way too many people online complaining about EVs because you cannot easily drive them from Cape Conran to Kalumburu or some other random trip statistically no one does on a normal basis. |
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#41 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Victoria
Posts: 7,854
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Quote:
There is no financial benefit for him to upgrade to an EV - ROI
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#42 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Victoria
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Quote:
Probably worse. actually I think definitely worse. if we were actually producing the cars here the shortage of semiconductors would put our low volume production way down the list of importance. Its could/would have been another reason to halt production.
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#43 | |||
Donating Member
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Quote:
Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
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#44 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 11,291
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It’s time for Tesla to send an extra boat load or two and maybe start sending the more popular Y |
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#45 | ||
Regular Member
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: North America
Posts: 284
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In my area in NA if everybody turns on their Air Con at the same time the electrical system is almost maxed out.
Can't imagine how it would work if everyone also plugged in an EV. The infrastructure to support all the future EV's doesn't exist in most places |
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#46 | |||
Donating Member
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I'd suggest there are more of the population in Australia that won't have any issues vs the ones that would have issues. If you live somewhere where EVs wouldn't work, simple, don't buy an EV. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
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#47 | ||
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Join Date: Feb 2005
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In Aus, we seem to be having the opposite problem lately. We produce too much electricity due to our high takeup of solar. If batteries were better priced, we could store what we produce during the day, and charge our cars overnight.
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#48 | ||
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Melb.
Posts: 4,442
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If that's the case why are electricity rates about to rise upto 30% in the next few months?
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#49 | |||
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Probably the same reason as petrol is going up too... Ukraine, COVID, "insert excuse here" Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
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#50 | ||
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Melb.
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I changed from AGL to Lumo and while I'm saving on the actual tariff I pay, the feed in tariff (FIT) from sell back of solar went down to 8c/kwhr...AGL offered 6c, so lowered my FIT and increased the supply rate sending me on a rant....and one of my clients is grandfathered on 60c. FIT
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#51 | |||
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Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
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#52 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Victoria
Posts: 7,854
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LPG Incentives
Solar Incentives EV Incentives..
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#53 | |||
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There are actually issues getting investor funding for new renewable plants because the returns are falling, so the investors arent interested. There are also moves to charge us for the electricity we export when it is surplus to the grid's needs. |
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#54 | |||
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Tesla would be turning in his grave at the thought of his beloved AC going down this path. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
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#55 | ||
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VFacts tell a very interesting tale about EVs. Highest selling passenger car in Australia last month was.... An EV!
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#56 | |||
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#57 | |||
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#58 | |||
Peter Car
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: geelong
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It probably wouldn't have even been in the top 10 vehicles for the month. |
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#59 | ||
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#60 | |||
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4417 is the yearly number. 3097 was March. Literally in the publications that says exactly that. I'll await you accepting you got that wrong and were too eager to criticise Tesla. You're a kind of fanboi yourself. The Anti Tesla Fanboi. Whats common to both is they don't like facts.
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My Ford Family... 2014 GT-F, Manual, Kinetic with Black Stripes 2021 Mustang Mach 1, Manual, Velocity Blue Last edited by kypez; 08-04-2022 at 02:31 PM. |
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