Quote:
Originally Posted by guzzis3
Housing in the 3 east coast capitals is about 60% overvalued, supported by unsustainable immigration, domestic and overseas investors.
If you can be bothered charting average wage vs average house price in sydney for example it started in the 80's and has been getting worse ever since, apart from a hiatus after the recession in 1990. Cashed up boomers started it and then it became a contagion.
The lack of recessions is also a fallacy. Growth has been due entirely to ridiculous immigration levels. The highest rate in the OECD for almost 20 years now.
At some point the bubble has to burst, but I have been amazed for about 15 years now how it's managed to keep going. The small retraction about a decade ago was not nearly enough. Now finally with the virus maybe enough oxygen will be cut off for Australia's economy to get a forced reset, but who knows. Maybe we will just keep borrowing forever.
Incidentally real estate across Australia is cheap. You can buy a house in NSW or Qld for $80k sometimes less. Land can be had for $10k, but people would rather spend 1 mill in sydney and enslave themselves to a bank for life... bizarre...
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Agreed on how our market has kept sound since the GFC for eg, I've been waiting on the bubble to burst, who hasn't but - we've had some minor down turns that have effected properties in surburbia but there is always pockets that went down half what other areas suffer.
Is covid the bubble buster ? we shall see soon enough.
Covid is the migration show "stopper" - no way are we going to see the numbers comign to settle here for the next 1 maybe 2.
Someone quoted Sydney is OTT but you need to put Melb side by side nowadays.
Pricing around the city is near on as bad.
Also quizzis3 re you Boomer mention investing, straight after boomers is the owner builder turned developer who have been young fellas when started kicking butt for the last 20yrs, you only have to look at the number of duplex's - house flipping after a reno within months/1yr has been huge !
Boomers may have started it but those that followed have done even more imo.
How many young well off Tradie types do you see in C63's/M5/X this ML that.
One thing I'm hoping for is for those 1st home buyers in ready to pounce on these predicted drops soon to come, and good luck to them grab it with both hands.
Me too, waiting on grabbing a so called bargain BUT we shall see eh.