Without reading the whole thread, I tend to use Tony Seba's forecast as a bit of a guide
His forecast was for US, or world market? But what he outlines is a prodigiously big change over the next decade in many markets. One thing I took away from it when I saw it a couple of years ago was 'affordable EV by 2023'.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
Worth a listen - bear in mind this is 4 years ago when he's making the call.
What I've noticed is that covid/inflation has moved the goal posts of 'affordable'. Where we might have said 20K is a Corolla price and that's where the volume EV must land, that 20K is now 30K- which gets it closer to EV pricing, which is coming down. I think the MG SUV EV offers the best value at present, at about 40-45K it's getting closer to the 30-35K price start in that segment. So it's coming.
The next point is that Australian conditions are different to US/world - we have huge distances and little infrastructure, yet most population in about 7 urban areas. So we might get a schism: ICE/hybrid rules the bush, while the cities go electric. Diesel may well continue to rule how everything gets freighted/harvested/mined for some time yet.
Also of some note, I would argue that we are beginning to see weather patterns change. I'm a surfer so my head is in this space a bit more. Currently the La Nina is doing a good impression of the 1970s, but we're also seeing more meriodonal weather patterns in the northern hemi and resultantly some crazy hot/cold weather shifts and events of heat, snow, flood, cold that are breaking records. The North Atlantic current is slowing. Now whether this is due to CO2 or a forthcoming Grand Solar Minimum - I will leave up to you. (At the same time, the magnetic poles are shifting at an increasing rate and I'd argue this can't be CO2. Also, there are some pretty weird auroral events going on, as well as changes on other bodies in the solar system). If the big weather changes are due to CO2, then this shift to EV will be welcome. But there's much work to do on the grid and power generation if so. If the changes are due to a solar minimum and we cop an extra-large flare during it (when our own magnetic field's protection is lowered) then the joke's on anything electric and mechanical will rule again.
For geopolitical reasons, it would be nice to make all the energy for Australia's car fleet in-house. A bit of a no-brainer. (cough natural gas, cough) It seems globalism has peaked, no biggie, it did before 1914 too: Govco has come out supporting lithium/rare earth metals miners, as we move to develop a Western, in house supply chain.