[russellw]

In conjunction with the global vaccination push, you'd reasonably expect that case mortality rates would drop and on a global basis, they have; from 2.149% at the end of July this year, to the current 2.021%. That's the good news.

However, one of the consequences is a rise in case numbers in some countries that have also led to rising CMR rates so that merits a closer look.

In the last 21 days, the total global case number growth has been 3.75% with a lot of countries well under that but a reasonable number of countries having had a greater than 10% increase in case numbers. These include:

Anguilla which only had 668 cases since the pandemic began but has seen a 35.7% increase although the CMR dropped slightly. Vaccination rates are slow but might pick up now.

Armenia has seen a 13.1% (42k case) increase and the CMR rose. Vaccination rates are only around 11% so it makes sense.

Australia has seen a 23% (41k case) increase but the CMR fell. Vaccination rates are high so the case numbers are probably a result of some freedoms coming too soon.

Austria has seen a 12.2% (112k case) increase but the CMR fell. Vaccination rates are around 64% so it's another case of too soon for freedoms and they have put some restrictions back in place.

Barbados has seen a 39.6% (8k case) increase and the CMR rose. Vaccination rates are around 50% so there's probably some more work needed.

Brunei has seen a 25.4% (3.5k case) increase and the CMR rose. Vaccination rates are around 70% so there should be some improvement soon.

Bulgaria has seen a 15.0% (95k case) increase although the CMR fell a little. Vaccination rates are only around 22% so it makes sense.

Croatia has seen a 15.3% (76k case) increase although the CMR fell a little. Vaccination rates are only around 43% so that's about right.

Estonia has seen a 17.0% (35k case) increase although the CMR fell a little. Vaccination rates are around 52% but that's clearly not enough.

The Faeroe Islands, which only had 1,300 cases since the pandemic began has seen a 49% increase and a rising CMR. Vaccination rates are high at >80% so this one is a bit of a mystery unless it's from incoming tourists.

Georgia has seen a 13.3% (100k case) increase although the CMR fell a little. With a vaccination rate around 27%, it's not hard to see why.

Greece has seen a 12.1% (95k case) increase although the CMR fell a little. With a vaccination rate around 60%, the numbers should be better.

Ireland has seen a 12.3% (58k case) increase although the CMR fell a little. With a vaccination rate around 80% (of 18+), the numbers should be better.

Laos has seen a 33.7% (16k case) increase and the CMR rose. Vaccination rates are only around 30% so there's no surprises there.

Latvia has seen a 22.2% (51k case) increase and the CMR rose. Vaccination rates are only around 50% so there's a way to go yet.

Lithuania has seen a 18.9% (63k case) increase although the CMR fell a little. With a vaccination rate around 57% there is still a way to go.

New Caledonia has seen a 12.8% (1.5k case) increase and the CMR rose. Vaccination rates are only around 58% so there's a way to go yet.

New Zealand has seen a 34.3% (2.5k case) increase although the CMR fell a little. With a vaccination rate around 78%, the numbers should be better.

Singapore has seen a 35% (76.5k case) increase and the CMR rose. Vaccination rates have been over 80% for awhile now so the expected improvement hasn't materialised for some reason.

Slovakia and Slovenia have seen rises of 16.3% (85k case) and 14% (50k case) respectively although the CMR's fell slightly. Vaccination rates are sub 50% in both countries so there's no surprises in those results.

Thailand has seen a 10.4% (205k case) increase although the CMR fell a little. With a vaccination rate around 37% there is still a long way to go.

The UK has seen a 10.1% (940k case) increase although the CMR fell a little. With a vaccination rate around 85% the improvements haven't been great there either.